NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! After a jam packed, 11-game slate on Sunday, we have just four games tonight. I love NBA Sundays once the NFL season finishes. We get to watch NBA basketball all day, and I can only hope that someday we get to do that more than once a week. I’m not saying I miss COVID-19 lockdown, but I do miss the NBA bubble scheduling.
I’m going to be positive and just try to be happy that we have hoops every night for the next few months. Four games may not be many, but it sure is more than zero games. That’s just how numbers work. Of course, since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Please watch and leave a comment below to let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. Now, onto the basketball.
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Pacers -6.5, 245.5
My Projection – Pacers 124, Raptors 121
Key Injuries – Aaron Nesmith is out.
The Indiana Pacers looked great last night in their victory over the Dallas Mavericks, and the market adjusted their ranking even higher than it’s been the last few weeks. If you look at the closing spreads for every game throughout the season, you can organize them to determine how sportsbooks are rating each team, and they are high on the Indiana Pacers. They have been double-digit favorites over bad NBA teams and favorites of 6-8 points over the league’s middle class. That puts them among the league’s better, although not best, teams in terms of rating, but the Pacers are just 4-7 against the spread in their last 11 games, which tells me Indiana might not be as good as the books think. Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam are very good players, but not quite yet stars, and the rest of the roster is thick with talent. They are especially short of good players at the wings, which is made even worse by the loss of Aaron Nesmith. Without him, Indiana doesn’t have a good wing defender who can shoot with size. The Pacers are still a good team, but not a very good team in my estimation.
Tonight they face a Toronto Raptors team that is in a similar situation. Scottie Barnes is very good, but not quite a star. RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and Gary Trent are three solid players who fit well with Barnes. There are a few other good players on the team, but overall, the rest of the roster isn’t exciting. The Raptors are all but eliminated from the postseason, but they are a young team looking to win games to build momentum going into next season. The starters have been playing good basketball, and Toronto is not only covering spreads, but winning games. I think the Raptors can score without too much trouble against the Pacers and play enough defense to make this game interesting. I make this spread three, and we get a chance to take 6.5 points, so let’s do it.
Bets
Toronto Raptors +6.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Brooklyn Nets at Memphis Grizzlies
Current Line – Nets -2, 214.5
My Projection – Grizzlies 113, Nets 111
Key Injuries – Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart are out.
The Brooklyn Nets said everything you want to hear from a team after their head coach Jacque Vaughn was fired during the All-Star break and replaced with Kevin Ollie. Players expressed their frustrations with Vaughn and their optimism that Ollie could build a system that works for them. They followed up those words by scoring 93 points in a 28-point loss to the Toronto Raptors and by scoring 86 points in a 15-point loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nets have been bad all season, but they used to at least score points. They have played with a lackluster effort all season, and that seems to be getting even worse. Brooklyn is in the middle of a four-game road trip and plays in Orlando tomorrow night. I expect to fade this sad sack of a team for the rest of the season, and that starts tonight.
The Memphis Grizzlies are almost the exact opposite of the Nets. The Grizzlies have struggled with injuries all season and have been forced to dig into their G-League team to fill their roster night to night. You wouldn’t know the team has faced so much adversity if you watched them. Every night this team plays with energy and effort, maximizing what they can produce. They’ve gotten healthier over the break, and although it’s hard to get excited for Luke Kennard and Santi Aldama, those are big upgrades over their replacements. Based on how they’ve been priced in recent weeks, the books think Memphis is one of the worst teams in the league. It’s not a great roster, but there is talent and a great system that the team is committed to playing. There aren’t many teams I would pick the Grizzlies to beat, but the Nets are one of them, and I’m betting on it tonight.
Bets
Memphis Grizzlies ML (+114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks -11.5, 223.5 – This is a tough matchup to handicap. Normally, the Knicks crush bad teams like Detroit, but this is a different team than the one we saw earlier this season. They are missing OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. They still have a talented roster, but not as much depth, which helps against bad teams. The key to covering a big spread like this is a bench unit that can win their minutes, and I don’t think the Knicks quite have that right now. The Pistons have nothing to play for, but it’s a young team and the players know this is their chance to audition for this team or another next season. I make this game Knicks -10 with a total of 222, which puts me close to the market. My model doesn’t see an edge, and it’s a hard matchup to handicap, so let’s not bet on it.
Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings -7, 224.5 – Jimmy Butler started a non-fight with Naji Marshall on Friday night and is suspended from tonight’s game. Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro are listed as questionable. That leaves Miami without any good ball-handlers on the first night of a road back-to-back. That’s a rough situation for the Heat, but not bad enough for me to lay this many points with the Kings. Sacramento looked impressive in their wins over the Nuggets in Denver and over the Clippers in Los Angeles, but I still don’t rate them this much better than the Heat. I make this game Sacramento -6 with a total of 225, assuming that Tyler Herro plays and Terry Rozier does not. That’s close to the market, and we have to wait for the final injury report anyway. No bets for now.
