Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Derrick White Over 4.5 Assists
(+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Derrick White has been fantastic with Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart out, and he stepped up Tuesday with Jayson Tatum out as well. The Celtics are expected to get both Tatum and Smart back here, but I don’t expect to see a ton of minutes for Smart, and with that, I have White getting 34 minutes in a great matchup against Detroit, where my model projects him for 6.5 assists.
Nikola Vucevic Over 38.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
(-110, DraftKings Sprotsbook)
It’s a great matchup here for Nikola Vucevic against the Pacers, who rank 22nd in points allowed, 28th in rebounds allowed and 30th in offensive rebounds allowed. Additionally, we should see Vucevic pick up some more usage with DeMar DeRozan sidelined.
Mark Williams Over 2.5 Blocks + Steals
(+100, BetMGM)
Mark Williams has taken over the starting role with Mason Plumlee traded, and now is in line to see 26-plus minutes every night. This is great for him as he has always been productive in limited time. He now gets a matchup against the Spurs, who should play right into his blocks and steals, as the Spurs have the eighth-fastest pace in the NBA and also rank 25th in turnover ratio in the NBA.
