Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Lauri Markkanen o35.5 Points + Rebounds
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is a great matchup here for Lauri Markkanen, as the Pacers rank 22nd in points allowed, while also ranking 29th in 3PT% allowed and 28th against opposing forwards. They are also a great rebounding matchup, as they allow the 28th-most rebounds and the most offensive rebounds to opposing teams in the NBA. My model has Markkanen projected for 29 points alone but also adds over nine rebounds.
Mikal Bridges o18.5 Points
(-105, BetMGM)
Mikal Bridges joined the Nets and stepped into a big role, as he saw a 27% usage rate and played 34 minutes with his new team. Bridges has a chance to see a much larger offensive role here with this Nets roster. With that being the case, my model projects Bridges for over 24 points tonight. This is also a good matchup for Bridges, since he is such a good three-point shooter and the Knicks are 26th in 3PTs allowed. You can also consider a ladder here, with Bridges being +280 to score 25+ points and +700 to score 30+ points on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Joel Embiid u44.5 Points + Rebounds
(-104, FanDuel)
It never feels good to bet a Joel Embiid under, especially against the Rockets – but this is a monster line. Frankly, with a 13-point spread, there is some major blowout risk in this game, which could really affect his minutes. Embiid has been under this number in seven of his last 10 games and averages 43 P+R on the year. My model has Embiid for 30.4 points and 9.4 rebounds tonight.
