Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We are finally past the end of the football season and can now focus entirely on the stretch run of the NBA season. Teams are about 65% of the way through their season, and once we get past the All-Star break this weekend, we will have a hard push through the end of the season in mid-April. There are several teams fighting to make the playoffs or at least hold onto their spots in the Play-In Tournament.
There’s a lot of good basketball left for us to wager on, and tonight offers a big slate of fun games. Of course, since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. Leave any questions or suggestions you might have in the comment section there and I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP. Onto the hoops!
San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors
Current Line – Raptors -6, 237
My Projection – Spurs 112, Raptors 121
Key Injuries – None
This spread came out pretty close to my projections. The Spurs have figured out their best lineups, but you can start to see Victor Wembanyama and some other young players starting to hit the wall. The NBA season is a marathon and wears on the body. College and international basketball teams play fewer games, and it’s always tough for younger players to adjust to the increased workload. The Raptors have put together an interesting team and have 5-6 guys who could be part of a good team, but everyone else is not very good. Toronto has more than enough talent to beat San Antonio comfortably, but I think the Spurs can win the bench minutes and keep this game fairly close. I make the spread seven, so I see no value on either side of the six.
I do, however, show quite a nice edge on the total. If you look at the entire season, the Spurs have the fifth-fastest pace at 102 possessions per 48 minutes and the Raptors have the 18th-fastest pace at 99 possessions per 48 minutes. If you look at just the last two weeks, the Spurs are down to 15th with a pace of 99, and the Raptors are down to 26th with a pace of 96. Those are huge drops, and I can see why each team wants to play more slowly. Both San Antonio and Toronto need to find a way to keep their players from getting too fatigued. The Spurs need to protect their young players from being overworked, and the Raptors need to keep their small core of talent from being overworked as well. This total does not reflect the new, slower style we’ve seen from both of these teams. Under 237, or really anything 236 or higher, is a bet for me.
Bets
San Antonio Spurs/Toronto Raptors Under 237 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks
Current Line – Mavericks -13.5, 247.5
My Projection – Mavericks 128, Wizards 119
Key Injuries – Dereck Lively is out.
The new-look Mavericks throttled the Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points on Saturday. Okay, it’s not an entirely new look, but the additions of Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington make this Dallas team better. Dereck Lively is a very important player for the Mavericks, and although Gafford is not as good, he can replace some of what Lively offers and much more than anyone else on the roster. Washington could find his way into the starting lineup. His three-point shooting has gotten worse each season, but he will see more open looks and receive more good passes on this team than he ever has in his career. Both are good fits, but they are more complementary pieces and not players who raise the ceiling of this team in a meaningful way. The Mavericks are a very good team, but I don’t think they improved as much as the rating in the betting markets has risen for Dallas.
The Wizards are going the other way and are the team that traded Gafford to the Mavericks. Washington traded the only true center on their roster and since then have been downgraded a few points by the sportsbooks. I think that’s wrong. Of course, the Wizards are not better without Gafford, but I don’t think they are markedly worse. Gafford missed several games and played only 26.5 minutes per game and not 30+ minutes that most key players get every night. Washington has closed games with a small lineup all season and has had some success. There are not many great centers in the NBA, so there is not always a need for a true big man to be on the floor. Instead, you can play more shooters, and the drop in defense will be more than covered by the pickup in offense. I expect the Wizards to play mostly smaller lineups for the rest of the season, and that’s a perfect recipe for covering big spreads like the one we have tonight. I make this a 9-point game and we get a chance to take 13.5 points. Let’s do that.
Bets
Washington Wizards +13.5 (-110, Caesars Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors at Utah Jazz
Current Line – Warriors -1, 240
My Projection – Jazz 121, Warriors 118
Key Injuries – Chris Paul is out.
The Golden State Warriors are starting to play good basketball again, but are they a good team yet? They have won seven of their last 10 games and are finally starting to phase out Klay Thompson late in games to allow Brandin Podziemski to get more playing time. Looking deeper into their wins, the two best are a one-point victory over the Phoenix Suns at home and a 21-point victory of the Pacers in Indiana. The game against Phoenix was close the entire time, and Tyrese Haliburton was still on a minutes limit during the Indiana loss to Golden State. In short, I don’t rate their recent performances as highly as the market seems to rate them. I’m more optimistic about this team than I have been in months, but I can’t make them favorites in Utah tonight.
The Jazz have the ninth-best net rating in the NBA since January just above the Golden State Warriors, who are 10th in the same timeframe. Utah traded away a few secondary players at the deadline. Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji and Simone Fontecchio were solid players in Utah, but they are replaceable. The Jazz have a deep roster and guys who can fill those roles adequately. Utah is getting another great season out of Lauri Markkanen, has worked out an effective four-guard rotation and has one of the better defensive centers in the NBA, Walker Kessler. I still rate the Jazz higher than the Warriors, especially in Utah with Golden State playing their seventh consecutive game and having to travel the night beforehand. This is a bad spot for a Warriors team that I think is at least equal to, if not worse than, the Utah Jazz. I’ll back Utah to win the game.
Bets
Utah Jazz ML (-102, FanDuel)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5, 230.5 – Tyrese Maxey will be back on the floor tonight for the 76ers, but there is still little reason to be optimistic about Philadelphia’s chances. The impact of not having Joel Embiid is obvious, but they have also seen the negative effects of missing De’Anthony Melton and Nicolas Batum. They are starters for the 76ers and key contributors. Without them, Philadelphia’s depth becomes an immediate concern. Their opponent tonight, the Cavaliers, are one of the deeper teams in the league and have won 17 of their last 19 games. I make this game Cleveland -9, but there’s no way I’m taking the points with a mess of a 76ers team in Cleveland against a Cavaliers team that is peaking.
Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets +9.5, 238.5 – These prices are almost exactly the same as my model’s prices. I make this game Indiana -10 with a total of 237. The Pacers have been playing better now that Tyrese Haliburton is not limited each night, and they should crush a team like Charlotte that might have the worst roster in the NBA. Brandon Miller is getting better each night and has shown flashes of possibly being an all star someday. There’s not many bad things you can say about what Miles Bridges does on a basketball court. Beyond those two, there are only a few other players who are good enough to be in The Association. Everything looks right to me, so no bets.
Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks -4, 237.5 – The Hawks have turned things around after a bad start to the season. They are 6-2 in their last eight games and are also 6-2 against the spread. Clint Capela is out, but Onyeka Okongwu has filled in for him, and I think he makes the Hawks a better team. Okongwu is a better defender and a better shooter which helps on both ends of the floor. The Bulls have been playing well themselves, but Alex Caruso is questionable tonight. If he can’t play, I make this game Hawks -5, but if Caruso is in, I make this Hawks -2. That puts me in the position of not backing Atlanta, but only showing a small edge on Chicago if Caruso can play. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord channel to see if I do bet this game..
New York Knicks at Houston Rockets +3.5, 221.5 – We can’t bet this game because we don’t know who is playing. Fred VanVleet and Cam Whitmore are out for the Rockets, and Alperen Sengun is listed as questionable. Sengun is the best offensive player in Houston and is the hub for everything they do on that end of the floor. His loss is huge and even more so without VanVleet to lead the offense. OG Anunoby and Julius Randle are out for the Knicks and Isaiah Hartenstein is questionable. That’s a lot of talent missing from the New York roster, and without Hartenstein there is not a good center to put on the floor. If he can’t play, they might have to use Jericho Sims for 35+ minutes, and that is not good for a team trying to win basketball games. The injury report is just too messy to make any bets at this team. If I do make a wager, I’ll be sure to put it in the FTNBets Discord.
New Orleans Pelicans at Memphis Grizzlies +9.5, 222 – The Grizzlies have lost eight games in a row, but are 4-4 against the spread in those games. It’s a roster of Jaren Jackson and players who should probably be in the G-League. Maybe the impact of the lack of talent is tempered by the high level of effort given by players who know this is their chance to catch the eyes of an NBA team, but at the end of the day, the Grizzlies are not good. The Pelicans are good, possibly very good, but they have struggled to beat bad teams soundly. They only beat the Trail Blazers by nine points on Saturday and finish a four-game road trip tonight before heading home for a back-to-back set of games starting Wednesday. Zion Williamson is listed as questionable, and New Orleans is good enough to win this game by double-digits without him, but there are just too many reasons to avoid backing the Pelicans and almost no reasons to back the Grizzlies. I’ll pass on this game.
Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks +1, 230 – These two teams played about two weeks ago and the Nuggets won by 14 points in Denver. Neither team is generating excitement with their performances, but for two very different reasons. The Nuggets are sleepwalking through the regular season where their goal is to keep everyone healthy and to not let the league see their best stuff until the postseason. Denver knows they can ratchet up their effort later in the season and peak in the playoffs. The Bucks are still a mess. Doc Rivers hasn’t found a good defensive system to improve performance on that end of the floor while changing the offensive system to hurt their performance on that end of the floor. I tend to think the Nuggets will play hard against another team with NBA Finals aspirations, but they also might know the Bucks are not that good and not worth their best effort. I don’t know what to expect from either team, so I’m not making any bets in this game.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers -4.5, 224.5 – This should be an excellent game to watch, but as that often means, it is not an excellent game to bet. It could be a preview of the Western Conference Finals and an interesting battle of a team built around big men and a team built around wings. Anthony Edwards is the best player on the Timberwolves, but the core of the team is its size and ability to defend thanks to Rudy Gobert and having length at every position. The Clippers are built around Kawhi Leonard and Paul George who are two of the better two-way players in the league. Both can defend almost every position and score efficiently while also creating space or opportunities for their teammates. I make this game Clippers -3, but I don’t think my projections are accurately accounting for the possibility of Jaden McDaniels not playing. He is Minnesota’s best wing defender and will be needed to slow down at least one of Kawhi or George. Enjoy the basketball, but I can’t advise that you bet on either side.
