Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed, and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Killian Hayes Over 6.5 Assists
(-138, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Killian Hayes entered the starting lineup prior to last game, and with Saddiq Bey traded away that should remain the case for this one. So far this season with Cade Cunningham and Bey off the floor, Hayes sees a 23% usage rate. My model projects him for 8.41 assists in about 31 minutes in this great matchup against the Spurs and their No. 30 defense.
Anthony Edwards Over 34.5 Points + Assists
(-111, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Anthony Edwards should be the guy here with no Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell. In similar situations this year with those two off the floor his usage rate goes up over 36%. My model projects him for 31 points and 6.37 assists tonight in this fast-paced matchup against the Grizzlies, who rank second in pace this season. I also like the over on Edwards assists at 5.5 +122 on FanDuel.
Derrick White Over 19.5 Points + Assists
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
With Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart out for Boston, Derrick White should see additional minutes as well as usage in this great matchup against Charlotte, who rank 25th in defense and seventh in pace. My model has White for 18.74 points and 5.5 assists.
