Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! It’s a TNT Thursday, which means we get to watch the best studio show in all of sports and some potentially interesting NBA matchups.
I bet this foursome looked much better at the start of the season, but the ravages of injury and poor performance have muddied the water. I’m still excited to watch each game because there is a lot to be learned. We get a glimpse of the new Pacers, a historical NBA rivalry, a finally health Cavaliers team that has won 11 of their last 12, and 40 minutes of Tobias Harris against the Utah Jazz.
OK, maybe one or two of those things are not as exciting as they seem, but if you love NBA basketball, this will be another good, although probably not great, Thursday night. Let’s dive into each game, see what might happen and how we might bet them.
NBA Best Bets for Thursday
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Current Line – Knicks -2.5, 236.5
My Projection – Knicks 120, Pacers 114
Key Injuries – Julius Randle is out. Tyrese Haliburton is expected to play, but on a minutes restriction. Bennedict Mathurin, T.J. McConnell, Jalen Smith and OG Anunoby are questionable.
The Indiana Pacers are a fun team when they are all healthy, but that seems to happen rarely these days. Tyrese Haliburton is working his back from hamstring strain and will play, but with a minutes cap. He played 22 minutes on Tuesday in his first game back in almost two weeks. He was very effective in that time, but that’s less than half the game. The Pacers covered, but that was more about the tough schedule spot for their opponent, the Boston Celtics, than Indiana’s ability to succeed without their star. That problem gets even worse if T.J. McConnell can’t play tonight because Haliburton and he are the only two point guards on the Pacers. At best, both will play, but limited by their injuries against a New York Knicks team that has shown us they can defend at a high level even without OG Anunoby.
The Knicks have been on a great run winning their last games by an average of 17.5 points with a record of 7-1 against the spread. The trio of Villanova alumnae — Jalen Brunson, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo — has played very well together, and Isaiah Hartenstein has been the anchor of a great defense. Without Julius Randle and OG Anunoby, they lose their depth, but New York is still a very good team and a great matchup against the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks have shown they can control pace and slow down teams like Indiana that want to run. At the same time, they have an offense that can score in bunches against a defense like the Pacers. New York has more talent, better top talent with Haliburton limited, and are playing better basketball. I make the Knicks six-point favorites and will happily bet the -2.5 or even -3 that’s available at most sportsbooks.
Bet
New York Knicks -2.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics -11.5, 241.5
This is the biggest rivalry in the history of the NBA, but Thursday’s game won’t have the luster of previous matchups. The Lakers are in shambles. Los Angeles lost Monday in Houston by 16, lost Tuesday in Atlanta by 16, and now LeBron James is tweeting out cryptic emojis. The Lakers play the Celtics as the fourth game of a six-game Eastern Conference road trip, and I struggle to see how they keep this game close let alone win it. I make this game Celtics -13 with a total of 238, which is a small edge to Boston and the under and a decent edge on a Lakers team total under, but I’m going to pass. Unders are dangerous bets in blowout games and there’s a chance that LeBron and Anthony Davis find their way to the free throw line enough to keep this game tight. No bets for me here.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Memphis Grizzlies +8, 215.5
Things somehow keep getting grimmer for the Memphis Grizzlies and their roster. Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke were lost to injury before the season even started. Ja Morant was suspended for 25 games, came back and then got injured badly enough to miss the rest of the season. Marcus Smart hurt his finger Jan. 11, and Desmond Bane sprained his ankle Jan. 15. Both will be out at least until the end of February. That is five of their top six players … and wait, there’s more. Thursday, Santi Aldama, John Konchar and Luke Kennard are listed as questionable or doubtful. Who’s excited to watch Matt Hurt, GG Jackson, and Scotty Pippen play big minutes? I was very close to playing a team total under for what’s left of the Grizzlies, but these prices are close to my projections and Cleveland has been terrible in the second night of back-to-backs this season. As good as the Cavaliers have been playing and as bad as the Grizzlies roster is, I still can’t justify laying the eight points and eight is definitely not big enough for me to back the underdog. No bets for me.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz -4.5, 237.5
Joel Embiid is not even in the state of Utah. Tyrese Maxey is questionable and has missed several games in a row. Key support players, De’Anthony Melton, Robert Covington and Nicolas Batum are also likely to miss this contest. That doesn’t leave much talent remaining on the Philadelphia roster in a game that the 76ers’ last of a five game Western Conference road trip. It’s just a really bad spot for Philadelphia, but it’s not a great spot for the Utah either. The Jazz are playing their first home game after being on the road almost two weeks. That’s generally a down spot for teams. It’s a tough number to make, but I have this Jazz -7 if Maxey is out and Jazz -2 if Maxey is playing. So, if you know for sure Maxey is out, bet Utah now. I don’t know that for sure, so I’ll pass. If I do make a bet later, I will put in the FTN Bets Discord.
