Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a big slate of NBA games Wednesday. I did not find any major price discrepancies in the spread or total market. Our FTN NBA betting model did not have a single edge over 8%. We did find a few early edges in the player prop model, many of which point to some unders. On a big slate, injury news is always an issue, and we should have some more clarity and some more bets later today once everything works itself out. You can sign up for a free trial look behind the paywall on FTN Bets by clicking here to stay up to date with breaking news in our Discord. For now, here are the early look NBA best bets for the day.
Best NBA Point Prop Bets
Anfernee Simons Under 20.5 Points
Anfernee Simons topped 20 in his last game, but he was on fire from deep. He knocked down five 3-pointers in that game but took just 12 total shots for the second straight game. Simons averaged over 17 shots per game, but much of that came with Damian Lillard out. Simons has only topped his 17 FG per-game average in one of the last 12 games they have played. He averages 21 points per game on the season and with his attempts down, I would expect him to continue to come in under this level more often than over. Remember he hit five of eight 3-point attempts last game to get there, and I doubt he continues to shoot 60% from deep.
Paolo Banchero Under 20.5
Paolo Banchero is coming off a 29-point effort against this same opponent last time out. It was only the first time in three games that he did score over 20 points. He shot incredibly well to get there with 50% FG, 60% 3-point, and 80% from the free throw line. It was his best fantasy production since November. This Philadelphia defense is normally very stingy, so it was a surprise to see him hit that over. The prop number is higher today. My guess is the Sixers make adjustments since Banchero killed them last game. He also shot well above his norms, so he would need to stay on fire to continue to top that level. This game has a big spread, so the potential for blowout is also there. A lot of things would need to go right for Paolo to continue to top this number and only one of the many mentioned needs to go wrong for him to fall short.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Scottie Barnes Over 6.5 Rebounds
Scottie Barnes has at least six rebounds in five straight games and is averaging over seven on the season. More importantly the Raptors will be without OG Annoy tonight, which should open up some more rebounds and minutes for Barnes. The matchup is a middle-of-the-road one for him, but the total and projected pace are elevated here. That should be enough to help him reach toward his ceiling or at least above-average production to cash this number.
