Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 Points
(-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Nuggets will be without Michael Porter again here, and now Jamal Murray is on the injury report as well. Nikola Jokic gets a strong matchup against the Hawks here as well, and my model has Jokic for north of 28 points Friday.
Jaren Jackson Over 15.5 Points
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jaren Jackson has put up at least 16 points in six straight games now, and he continues to be heavily involved as the No. 2 scoring option on this Memphis team with Desmond Bane out. This is a difficult matchup against the 76ers, but I view this line as too low, as my model has him for nearly 19 points.
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 Assists
(+120, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Jimmy Butler is expected to return here, but Tyler Herro has posted at least 9 assists in three straight games and has been heavily involved in the offense. I still think he continues to see increased usage here in this matchup against Boston.
