Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! The NBA season rolls along with just a week until the Christmas Day marquee games. As hard as the NFL tries, Christmas is about NBA basketball. The holiday is a great marker in the calendar for teams because they are about 30% through the season and a month away from the trade deadline. Teams have enough data to decide if it’s time to buy or sell. They are also now allowed to trade players signed in the offseason, which expands the options for everyone.
It’s a fascinating time, and tonight is no exception. Let’s take a look at each game and see how to bet it. Since it’s Monday, you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Onto the hoops!
Los Angeles Clippers at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Clippers -3, 246
My Projection – Clippers 127, Pacers 121
Key Injuries – Tyrese Haliburton is questionable.
These are two teams headed in different directions. The Indiana Pacers are 1-3 since losing in the finals of the NBA In-Season Tournament. The Clippers have won eight of their last 10 games and are playing as well as any team right now. I make this a six-point game, and the market is giving us a chance to lay only three points with Los Angeles. I considered a Clippers team total over as well, but LA has slowed game downs in the second half when they have a lead. They could win by double-digits and not get over the 124.5 point team total that’s in the market now.
Bet
Clippers -3 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat
Current Line – Timberwolves -2, 217.5
My Projection – Timberwolves 111, Heat 105
Key Injuries – Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels are questionable. Kyle Lowry is out.
Anthony Edwards is questionable, but he is expected to play in Miami tonight. The Heat are as healthy as they’ve been all season now that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are both available to play. The offensively gifted Herro missed last year’s run to the NBA Finals, and Miami has played better without him so far this season. The Timberwolves have been playing great basketball, and they match up well against Miami. Anthony Edwards played well in his last game against the Indiana Pacers, so I’m not too worried about his hip injury and definitely not worried about him being slowed down by any Heat player. The Timberwolves have size at every position and the Heat are small, especially in the frontcourt. Rudy Gobert will be able to attack the offensive boards, and Karl-Anthony Towns will be able to shoot over his defenders. The Heat have better three-point shooting, and without Jaden McDaniels it could be tough for the Timberwolves to stop that. Barring some sort of aberrant performance, Minnesota should win this game by at least a basket. I make them six-point favorites, so I’ll lay the 2 the market is offering.
Bet
Minnesota Timberwolves -2 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Mavericks at Denver Nuggets
Current Line – Nuggets -8.5, 237.5
My Projection – Nuggets 124, Mavericks 115
Key Injuries – Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively are out.
Unfortunately, the Dallas Mavericks are a little beat up, or we might have had a preview of the Western Conference Finals tonight. Luka Doncic has been excellent and has carried the Mavericks the past few weeks without Kyrie Irving and several key secondary players. It’s been impressive, but it’s taken its toll on the MVP candidate. He’s playing great, but the efficiency is starting to drop, and there’s nothing worse than having tired legs in the altitude of Denver. It will be even more difficult without Dereck Lively, who is a great fit as a center even as a rookie. Dallas will be missing all of that against Nikola Jokic. Not that anyone can really guard him, but the Mavericks will struggle more than most teams tonight. I make the full game line Nuggets -9, but until the market adjusts Denver first quarter spreads properly, I’m going to attack this angle. Jokic plays the entire quarter, which means the first quarter spread for the Nuggets should be at least a point or two more than what we’ve been seeing. I make the first quarter 4, and I think that’s even a little light without Lively. The market is offering us -2.5, so let’s grab it!
Bet
Denver Nuggets 1Q (-2.5 -110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Houston Rockets at Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5, 214.5
So, do we bet the team playing on the road for the second night in a row and the third time in four nights? Or should we bet on a team that only has two of the four star players that drive their success? Well, I hate both of the options this game offers. I wanted to bet the Rockets, but it’s just too bad of a schedule spot to take anything less than 6 points. Fading the Cavaliers without all four of their best players has been good, but I’m not going to do it tonight. My projections match the total as well, so no bets for me in this game.
Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers -10.5, 226.5
My projections are within a point of the spread and total being offered. Philadelphia has been demolishing teams lately. They won their last four games by 45, 18, 32 and 53 points. The Bulls are much better than the Wizards, Pistons and Hornets but not good enough to keep this game to a single-digit spread. Joel Embiid has dominated Nikola Vucevic any time they have played. Philly has defenders that can handle DeMar DeRozan, and I’m not sure Chicago has defenders that can handle Tyrese Maxey. It feels like another 76ers smash spot, but there’s just no value betting it. The Bulls know how to make a game ugly, and the 76ers know how to leave the backdoor open for a late cover by their opponent. No bets for me in this game.
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks -12, 246.5
I’m not sure if the Hawks should be 12-point favorites over anyone, but I’m also not sure the Pistons should only be a 12-point underdog against anyone. Atlanta is 2-8 in their last 10 games. Most of the losses are to good teams, but there should have been a few wins for the Hawks in that stretch. Detroit has lost 23 games in a row, and there is no end to that streak in sight. Jalen Duren, their best big man, has missed most of the season and his replacements have played abysmally. I make it Hawks -10, 243. That’s close to the market, and I won’t be making any bets. I won’t even bet a Pistons team total under even though it’s been a great bet for us.
Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors -11.5, 227
The Hornets might be even worse than normal tonight, because Miles Bridges has been denied entry to Canada as a result of his domestic violence legal situation. He may be allowed in by tip-off time, but I don’t think he’s going to play, and the market move agrees. The Raptors haven’t been at their best the last few weeks, but this is a perfect bounce-back spot for them. I make them 9.5-point favorites, though, so I’m not going to be on them. Lean to the over here as well, but I don’t have any edges big enough to force a wager.
Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5, 229.5
Similar to the 76ers game, I see this as a smash spot for the Thunder, but I don’t see a way to bet it with any value. Memphis is limping to the end of its time without Ja Morant. The Grizzlies are playing better, but that means losing by less and not yet winning games. The Thunder are healthy and generally devastate the bad teams in the NBA. Their next game isn’t until Thursday at home, so no schedule concerns either for OKC. I make the Thunder 12-point favorites, but that’s not enough of a difference from the current spread. I’ll skip this game.
Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz -4, 234.5
It’s tough to make a good number for the constantly changing Utah Jazz. Lauri Markkanen is back, but Jordan Clarkson and Keyonte George are now missing. There is talent on the roster, it’s just never all available at the same time. Brooklyn is in a tough schedule spot, playing the last game of their five-game road trip, and ending in the altitude of Salt Lake City is less than ideal. My model makes it Brooklyn -6 with a total of 237. Those are close to market and again, I’m not very confident in my projections for Utah Jazz games.
Washington Wizards at Sacramento Kings -13, 250.5
I was really hoping we’d get a chance to bet the Kings at -10 or -11, but unfortunately it’s all the way out to 13, and we don’t even know if De’Aaron Fox is playing. If he’s in, the Kings might score 150 tonight. If he’s out, they might score 150 anyway. I make Sacramento 16-point favorites if Fox is in, which is close to a bet, but this will move to -14 or -15 once Fox is announced in for the game. Washington failed to lose to the Indiana Pacers, but I think that said more about the Pacers’ problems and less about the Wizards’ potential desire to actually win. Washington has shown they are happy to run and gun all game and then put away their best players in the second half. Maybe if Fox is playing I may find some angles, but I’ve got nothing now. If I do bet anything, you can find it in the FTN Bets Discord.
New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers -4, 234.5
As always, it’s too early in the day to bet Lakers games. They always put LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the injury report as questionable and then decide before the game who has the night off and who will play. Since I have to guess, I’d say LeBron plays and AD does not. The Knicks played their best game of the season on Friday and then one of their worst games of the season on Saturday. Mitchell Robinson is a key piece for them, and without him they are not able to reach their apex without an outlier shooting performance. I’ll be the Lakers if both stars are in and this number stays at six or lower. Look in the discord for that bet if I make it.
