Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Rudy Gobert o16.5 points
(-110, DraftKings)
Rudy Gobert has had some recent success filling up the points sheet with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined. He is averaging 20.6 points per game over his last three games and is coming off back-to-back 20+ point performances.
Bam Adebayo o20.5 points
(-114, FanDuel)
Bam Adebayo finds himself in an elite matchup against the Pacers, who continue to struggle defensively while playing at a fast pace. They rank 24 in DEF and fourth in pace, making for a great environment. Adebayo is averaging 25 points per game over the last two weeks.
Jalen Smith o4.5 rebounds
(-135, DraftKings)
Jalen Smith is an efficient player, who averages .3 rebounds per minute this season. Smith projects for just under 20 minutes tonight, and that puts him slightly over six rebounds in my model, making for a nice edge on the line here.
