Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s a football Sunday, but the NBA has a solid seven games today as well. We are waiting on some injury news in a few games, but we have some edges to consider.
Make sure you get over to the FTN Betting Model and FTN NBA player prop model to see all the edges once all the markets open up for today. For now, here are some of the best NBA best bets I’m looking at.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Milwaukee Bucks
-9.5 (BetMGM -115)
This is a good matchup for the Bucks. They play Houston, which is one of the worst teams in the NBA. But more importantly, the Bucks are going to be at full strength. Khris Middleton saw over 30 minutes for the first time this season on Friday. The Bucks’ schedule moving forward doesn’t have another back-to-back until the new year, which means we should continue to see full run out of the starting unit. Middleton improves the Bucks on both ends of the floor. Our FTN Betting model projects this as a 121-105 victory, which is 6-7 points above the spread.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Julius Randle OVER 23.5 points
Julius Randle has back-to-back 30 point games. Mitchell Robinson may be cleaning the glass, but he is not a scorer, which leaves room for the guys who are to see above-average scoring production. Sacramento has been a great matchup for opposing bigs. They play fast and are dreadful at defending bigs. This sets up as another big scoring night for the Knicks’ big man.
Best NBA Blocks Prop Bet
Anthony Davis OVER 2.5 blocks
This is a big number for blocks, but we are also getting a nice plus money payout on it. Anthony Davis has three or more blocks in six of the last eight games he has played. That means he’s gone over this 75% of the time in the past two weeks. He had only two blocks last game but was in foul trouble throughout and did not play his normal minutes. This would still be a good value if it was -120, so getting it at +135 is a steal.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Mitchell Robinson OVER 8.5 rebounds
How is this number only 8.5? That seems way too low for Mitchell Robinson. He’s averaging over 12 rebounds per game in his last six and has only been under 10 in one of those six games. I would even take 9.5 at even money and think we have a big edge, so to get it at 8.5 feels like great value.
