Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
Below, I’m using these projections to compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Jayson Tatum o26.5 pts
(-120, FanDuel)
The Celtics find themselves in a fast-paced matchup against Memphis here, and my model projects Jayson Tatum for nearly 29 points tonight.
Top Assists Prop
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 assists
(+100, FanDuel)
SGA has an elite matchup against Detroit here, and my model projects him for just north of six assists. While this isn’t a huge edge on the line, the number being +100 makes this a good bet.
Top Rebounds Prop
Isaiah Hartenstein o9.5 rebounds
Hartenstein will continue to get more minutes and opportunity with the Mitchell Robinson injury, and they will need him tonight in a matchup against the big Minnesota Timberwolves.
Top Underdog Pick
Pistons ML
(+114, FanDuel)
The Pistons are not a great team, but they have played some tough opponents very well this year, including the Bucks, and they even beat the Warriors last week. They are at home against a Thunder team that I think has been playing a bit better than they really are.
