Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With Thanksgiving on the horizon, the NBA has packed a massive 12 games of action into Wednesday night. We have tons of different ways to go as bettors. If you are looking for all the best bets in addition to our FTN NBA Betting model, NBA player prop model, or any of the advanced stats then check out our free trial offer. Here are my best bets in the total, points prop, assist prop and rebound prop markets for Wednesday.
Best NBA Total Bet
Detroit Pistons vs. Utah Jazz Under 232.5
This is the biggest edge today in our FTN NBA Betting Model. Both teams have played a few higher-scoring games lately, which is why the number is so high, but our projections have them coming in the low 220s range tonight, so we have a big edge on that at this inflated number.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
De’Andre Hunter Over 15.5 Points
De’Andre Hunter missed Monday’s game with a non-COVID-19 illness, but he is ready to go here. Hunter has averaged over 31 minutes and 15.9 points on the season. This game is a great spot for scoring upside as the total is a massive 241 points and climbing. Sacramento is one of the worst defenses in the league, currently giving up the third most points per 100 possessions, so this should be an upside spot for the Hawks scoring across the board.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Darius Garland Under 9.5 Assists
I like Darius Garland and this Cavs team, but that is seven straight games he did not get over this number. He’s down to under 8 assists per game on the season. I am not saying he is not playing well or is not talented or that this is not a good matchup, but we project him to be under 10 assists more often than over it. With this prop paying even money, that means the value is there.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Tobias Harris Over 6.5 Rebounds
I wish I would have been earlier on this one. Tobias Harris had three games of 6 rebounds in a row, so they dropped it to 6.5 here from the recent highs of 7.5 and 8.5 rebounds in some of the previous games. He did miss two games in the middle of that run because of a hip injury, but he looked good in his first game back and that gives me confidence he’ll pick it up moving forward as he appears healthy. If he’s back to playing 30-plus minutes a night, this number is too low.
