Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Top Points Prop
Anfernee Simons o23.5 points
(-125, DraftKings)
Damian Lillard will be out for this game, and that should open up a ton of usage for the youngster Anfernee Simons, who has seen a 32.5% usage rate with Lillard off the floor so far this season. It is not a great matchup here against the Bucks, but the volume should be massive for Simons.
Top Assists Prop
Josh Giddey o6.5 assists
(-105, DraftKings)
Josh Giddey is averaging just under six assists per game this year, but he has posted 11+ assists in two of his last four games, so it’s clear the upside for Giddey to post a ton of assists is there any given night. This matchup against the Knicks is a good one, as they play at a top-7 pace, and my model has Giddey for nearly eight assists tonight.
Top Rebounds Prop
Nikola Vucevic o10.5 rebounds
(-130, DraftKings)
My model has Nikola Vucevic for over 13 rebounds tonight, and this has been a good matchup in terms of opposing centers and rebounds. Vucevic is averaging nearly 12 rebounds per game as is, and he is coming off a 16-rebound performance.
