Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a fun 11-game slate in the NBA Friday, and there is a lot of value to be had in the props market. While we’re still waiting for injury news in a lot of games, there are already some lines posted that we can attack before they move. Without further ado, here are my three favorite prop bets I’ve placed so far Friday.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet
Tyrese Haliburton Over 19.5 Points
Kicking things off, I bet 2 units on Tyrese Haliburton’s points prop. I’ve bet on Haliburton a lot this year, as in Indiana’s offense, he’s a guy whose points prop should be closer to 20.5, especially Friday. This game has the highest projected pace on the slate, as both teams will look to push all game. I also like the individual matchup. Per FTN’s Advanced DvP tool, Houston ranks 26th against primary ball handlers. Haliburton has gone over in nine of 13 games so far this year. I like Haliburton over 19.5 most nights, but this matchup pushes it to a two-unit bet. I bet this closes at 20.5.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Wendell Carter Over 16.5 Points
Wendell Carter will match up against Nikola Vucevic and the Bulls Friday for Orlando. A former Bull, Carter has played his former team five times since being traded to Orlando and has gone over 19 points in every one of those games. Orlando is still playing without Paolo Banchero, which continues to be a big boost for Carter. Carter averages 17.67 PPG when Banchero does not play vs. 16.29 when he does. In Carter’s minutes without Banchero this year, his usage rate goes from 20.36% to 26.07%. Our FTN Data model projects Carter for 18.84 points here. The Bulls have played good defense vs. centers this season, but Carter’s usage bump trumps the difficult matchup here.
Best NBA Longshot Prop Bet
Julius Randle to Record a Double-Double
Julius Randle was a man possessed Wednesday night against Denver, following up a solid performance against the Jazz Tuesday night. Randle reportedly organized a players-only meeting after the embarrassing loss to the Thunder on, and to his credit, he responded by giving the most effort he’s given all year in the next two games. That added effort bodes well for Randle’s rebounding potential, as he’s no longer letting rebounds go to leak out to the 3-point line. With Mitchell Robinson‘s continued absence, this bet belongs at +100, not +150. It doesn’t hurt the GS is 29th vs rebounders and 25th vs skilled centers so far this season.
