Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Tuesday is normally a slow night for NBA action, but we have a solid five games to look at here this time. Make sure to check out the FTNBets NBA model and the FTN player prop model to find the biggest edges in the market for Tuesday’s action in the association.
Here are my favorite bets from the total, points prop, assists prop, and rebound prop markets.
Best NBA Total Bet
San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trail Blazers Under 226.5
These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league to date. The Spurs average the sixth-fewest points per 100 possessions, and the Blazers are not far behind in 11th. San Antonio is also a horrendous defense, so that is at least positive for the Blazers. The Blazers are around 10th for points allowed per 100, so they should make life tough on the Spurs.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Domantas Sabonis Over 18.5
Domantas Sabonis had a slow start to the year, but he has picked it up recently. He cleared this prop number in all six of his most recent games. He’s averaged over 22 points in those six contests with only one game below 21 points. This is the guy the Kings thought they were getting when they made a trade late last season. Sabonis should have another big outing here.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Damian Lillard Over 6.5
Damian Lillard missed a few games with an injury, but played 36 and 38 the last two contests, so his minutes are back near his ceiling for the season. He finished with 7 and 12 assists in those two games, going well over his prop number. San Antonio gives up the third most points per 100 possessions at 117.4, so I’m expecting a good scoring game from the Blazers with Dame leading the way.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Domantas Sabonis Over 11.5 Rebounds
This number moved to 12,5 on most books at even money or -105. Domantas Sabonis is averaging over 11 rebounds per game on the season. He is coming off his best game where he grabbed 22 boards. He faces a Nets team that allows opponents to rebound 32.4% of their own missed shots, the worst mark in the league. The Nets also rebound the fifth-fewest number of their own misses, so there will be tons of rebounds available.
