Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Monday is a solid slate of seven NBA games. A few of them have some higher spreads than I like to see, but only the Milwaukee Bucks game is in double-digits, and that is not going to scare me away from my favorite play in that one.
If you want to see all the plays that our analysts are looking at for this evening, including my favorite play in the Milwaukee Bucks game, check out the FTN NBA Bet tracker. Here are my other favorite plays in the total, points, rebounds and assist prop markets for Monday’s NBA action.
Best NBA over/under bet
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Clippers total OVER 223.5
The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Clippers game has the biggest difference in projected total and the number offered in the market via our FTN Bets Model. We project it at 237, which is 13.5 points above. I know the Clippers struggled this weekend, but the matchup is much better tonight. The Rockets give up the fifth-most points per 100 possessions in the league. They have only had two games all season that ended below 223.5, and one of those was one bucket away at 222.
Best NBA points prop bet
Tyrese Haliburton OVER 20.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton has gone over his scoring prop in six of seven games already this year. He draws a matchup tonight against the team allowing the most points per 100 possessions of anyone in the league. The Nets are a disaster defensively, which should raise the floor and ceiling of every member of the Pacers. The 235 total here is by far the biggest on the slate, so scoring should be abundant. Halliburton is averaging over 15 shot attempts per game.
He’s averaging more than six 3-pointers and five free throws per game in over 33 minutes of action per night. Six 3s (18 potential points) + nine 2s (18) + five free throws gives him a potential of 41 points per night on average. The pace and defensive resistance of this game project to be much better than an average spot. We only need half of that to cash this number and likely will see better.
Best NBA Assist prop bet
Reggie Jackson UNDER 5.5 assists
Reggie Jackson is not 100%. He’s playing through a groin injury, and it has clearly bothered him on the floor. His minutes are down a bit, his shooting percentage has been horrendous and despite the fact John Wall likely sits, I still doubt R-Jax plays 35 minutes here. The lack of Wall, the good matchup and his past performances have this number at 5.5, but Jackson is averaging just four assists per game this year and has only cleared 5.5 in one of six contests. The under is way more likely and juiced as high as -135 on some other books.
Best NBA Rebound prop bet
Nick Richards OVER 5.5 rebounds
Nick Richards only plays about 20 minutes per game, but he’s already notched a double-digit rebound game in that amount of time before. He’s been super productive averaging just 21 minutes per game but scoring 12.5 points and grabbing 7.5 boards through the first two weeks of the season. This number is -135 on DraftKings, so the FD price has 20+ basis points of value, and we project him well above 5.5 in our player prop model.
