Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s time for Hoops with Noops! We’re just a few games into the season, but we’ve already learned a lot about every team. We don’t have enough data to trust only what’s happened this season, but just enough to let it color our opinions and projections.
While this makes some aspects of handicapping more difficult, it’s also more difficult for sportsbooks who can be too slow to adjust. Let’s dive into the games I’m betting tonight and why I’m making those wagers. If you’d like to see and hear me talk about tonight’s games, then you’re in luck, because there will also be a video version of today’s picks on the FTNBets YouTube channel. Of course, if you prefer to read, then you’re also in luck!
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers
Current Line – Pacers -3, 229.5
My Projection – Pacers 119, Bulls 113
Key Injuries – None
It has been a rough start for the Chicago Bulls this season. Occasionally, an NBA team will have a “players-only” meeting. This generally happens during a rough stretch during the season or when there’s some sort of drama between teammates. The Bulls had one of these meetings after their first game. I don’t remember there being a players-only meeting before Thanksgiving let alone after the first game of the season. Chicago has also become part of rumors about trading for James Harden. These are not the cracks you want to form in a team this early in the season. Tonight, they face the Indiana Pacers, who present some serious matchup problems. Tyrese Haliburton is already one of the best point guards in the league at 23 and should dominate this matchup. The Bulls might want to try starting Alex Caruso to guard Haliburton, but he’s been out of the starting lineup, and coach Billy Donovan generally sticks with his five. Myles Turner should best Nikola Vucevic, and the remaining spots are close. Overall, I rate Indiana higher even before considering the turmoil in Chicago. Add the home-court advantage, and I’d make this Pacers -6, which means we bet the -2.5/-3 in the market.
Bets – Indiana Pacers -2.5 (-115 BetMGM) Any price -3 at -115 or better is good.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks
Current Line – Timberwolves -2.5, 228.5
My Projection – Hawks 115, Timberwolves 115
Key Injuries – Jaden McDaniels is questionable.
I know, I know, a basketball game can’t finish in a tie, but my numbers say both teams score the same number of points most times they play. What that really means is that I would make the spread zero. Minnesota is the better team overall, but not by more than Atlanta’s home-court advantage. The Hawks are on the second night of a back-to-back, but last night was at home and a blowout win, which means minutes were down for the key players. It’s also a weird schedule spot for the Timberwolves, who are in Atlanta on a one-game road trip just before a game against the Denver Nuggets at home. I think the market is overestimating Atlanta’s back-to-back and underestimating the look-ahead spot for Minnesota. The Hawks also match up well here. They have big men to throw at Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns and wing defenders to throw at Anthony Edwards. It should be a fun matchup, and there’s value in backing the home underdog.
Bets – Atlanta Hawks (+114, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Portland Trail Blazers at Toronto Raptors
Current Line – Raptors -8.5, 216.5
My Projection – Raptors 112, Trail Blazers 101
Key Injuries – Anfernee Simons is out. Precious Achiuwa is doubtful. OG Anunoby is questionable.
People need to pump these brakes on all the recent Scoot Henderson bashing, but the Trail Blazers might be even worse than anyone expected. Most of the issues have been on the offensive end of the floor. Deandre Ayton is averaging only 8 PPG and Scoot is at 7 PPG. There was already a lack of shooting in Portland, and Anfernee Simons being out makes it even worse. There is no space on the floor for the offense to create good shots. On the second night of a back-to-back, they head to Canada to face one of the better defensive teams in the NBA. Even without Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby, the Raptors have all the tools to lock down the Trail Blazers and keep them under 100 points for the third game in a row. There is always concern that in a blowout game things could get out of hand in garbage time, but it’s more likely that Portland rests their tired players and just lets the game end. If either injured player for Toronto is announced in, I might even add some alternate team total unders as well. Keep an eye on the NBA Discord channel where I’ll share those bets if/when I make them.
Bets – Portland Trail Blazers Team Total Under 103.5 (-108, most books)
