Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a solid eight-game slate of NBA action tonight and a few different places we can go for our wagers. I am trying my best to avoid the Pacers/76ers game. That game screams bet the overs from the 76ers side, but when a spread is 12+ points, it always makes me nervous that minutes won’t be as projected if things get ugly.
The bad news is that only leaves us seven games to look at Monday. The good news is seven games are plenty to give you my best spread bets, points props, rebounding props and assist props.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers OVER 226
This is interesting. Caesars held the total at 226, but it’s up to 227 or higher on other books, so this number is moving. Our Betting Model has this game with the biggest edge on our number vs. the market number with this low total over on Caesars. Denver played to totals of 251 and 239 in their last two games, so they have been pacing up other teams and helping them hit ceiling scoring numbers.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Kyle Lowry OVER 11.5 points
Kyle Lowry killed us in the first game, as he scored just two points when we were on the over. Since then, he’s popped off for 17 in each of the next two games, including one against this same opponent. We project Lowry over 16 again today, so getting this at -115 with that big of an edge on the prop number is worth wagering on.
Best NBA Assist Prop Bet
Ja Morant OVER 6.5 assists
This is as high as -145 on some books. Ja Morant had eight and nine assists the first two games, and I am throwing out the remaining game. The Grizzlies fell behind early and never really got close in that game, so the starters saw a few less minutes in a poor showing. Morant had been unreal to that point and now gets an uptempo game against a team that was dreadful defensively last year. He projects closer to 10 assists again, so the 6.5 prop seems low.
Best NBA Rebounding Prop Bet
Jerami Grant OVER 4.5 rebounds
Jerami Grant cleared this easily in the first contest, missed by 0.5 rebounds in the second and was not rebounding at all in a tough third game vs. the Lakers. That has caused his prop number to drop down to 4.5, which seems a bit low. We project him for more than two rebounds above this today, so that is a massive edge worth a wager, even if it was -115 vs. +115. At +115, it’s hard to pass this up.
