Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have a solid nine-game slate of NBA games on tap for Saturday and we found quite a few edges in the betting markets. To see all of the day’s plays, from all of our analysts, check out the FTN Bet Tracker. Below I outline my favorite bet in each of the main betting markets I look at daily.
Best NBA Spread Bet
Memphis Grizzlies +6
The Grizzlies are playing too well to be six-point dogs to anyone. Ja Morant looks nearly unstoppable at the moment. They are on the road, and this is a good Dallas team, but I expect the game to be close to the end. I doubt either team crushes the other one, so +6 seems like too many points. Most sports books are down to +5 already, so they agree. Caesars is the slacker and best number in the market.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Tyrese Haliburton Over 19.5 Points
With the keys to the Pacers offense, an offense lacking for other playmakers and scorers, Tyrese Haliburton has looked like an All-Star at the start of the season. He’s easily cleared 20 points in both of the first two games and now draws a Detroit defense allowing the fifth-most points per 100 possessions through the first two games. Seems like another nice scoring spot for the young emerging superstar.
Best NBA Assists Prop Bet
Josh Giddey Over 5.5 Assists
Josh Giddey averaged 6.4 assists last year and averaged less minutes than he played in the opener. That was a tough defense he faced in Minnesota now with Rudy Gobert in the middle. His shooting and assists numbers took a predictable hit. I expect the Thunder to have a slightly easier time today on the offensive end and Giddey to bounce back. He’s never been a big scorer, but he does stuff a stat sheet, including in the assist department.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Santi Aldama Over 6.5 Rebounds
This number felt a bit too low. In two games this year, Santi Aldama has played 31 and 39 minutes while grabbing 9 and 11 rebounds. That means he’s averaging a rebound every 3.5 minute on the court. We need 7, so if he plays 25-plus minutes we should get him over. He’s seen at least 31 in every game, so we have some leeway.
