Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA season tipped off Tuesday with two games. Wednesday, the league has a dozen games, which means we have tons of betting markets to look at. If you want all of the best bets from our top NBA handicappers, make sure to check out the NBA bet tracker here.
Below are some of my favorite plays and the explanation about why I want a piece of them.
Best NBA Spread Bet Today
Washington Wizards -1
The Wizards will likely start Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Will Barton, Kyle Kuzma and Kristaps Porzingis. That is a strong starting five made up of guys who have all been solid NBA starters and contributors for years. They are led by a dynamic scoring duo in Beal and Porzingis. They face an Indiana tam that was gutted last season, losing Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Caris Levert. They are younger, but not as talented as they once were. I think Tyrese Haliburton is an excellent player, but the Pacers will need huge games from the other four starters to pull out a win here and I do not see that happening.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet Today
Kyle Lowry Over 11.5 Points
Our projections have Lowry for over 16 points Wednesday, making this one of the biggest differences we see between our number and the numbers available in the market. This opened at 10.5 points and many of the books that still have it there have shot it up from -110 to the -125 to -135 range. Some books moved it to 11.5 and have it at -105 or -110, so the best number at the higher prop total is on DraftKings now at even money. Lowry averaged over 12 points last season and played some of those games very beat up and not near 100%. He comes into this season healthy and if he plays even close to 30 minutes, he is definitely better than the 50/50 coin flip chance the odds are giving him to score 12 points.
Best NBA Rebounding Player Prop Today
Kristaps Porzingis Over 7.5 Rebounds
A healthy Porzingis should see 30ish minutes Wednesday. We project him way over his prop number at 12.5, which is 5 more than the books have him at. FanDuel already juiced the payout to -128 and likely moves this to 8.5 or above the -130 juice mark. The Pacers offense outside of Haliburton has a lot of question marks. The Wizards offense does too and both teams like to take a lot of shots from deep. Porzingis should have ample opportunities to rack up rebounds here and I don’t even hate the idea of taking a little bet on a double-double from him with our projections being for 25 points and 12.5 rebounds. You can get the double-double prop at +295 on DraftKings currently as well if you prefer to take on a little added risk for a potentially higher reward.
Best NBA Assist Player Prop Bet Today
Ja Morant Over 6.5 Assists
Our projected assist number is just shy of 10, and Ja Morant only needs to hit 7 to cash this. Morant faced the Knicks twice last year, clearing 6.5 assists in both games. He had 9 when these two met in Madison Square Garden and followed that up with 8 assists at home. You know Morant will have the ball in his hands and you know he is going to push the pace. We also projected him for a lot of points here, but the assist number is the one with the bigger edge that I wanted to play.
