NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Kyrie Irving o30.5 points
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
With Kevin Durant sidelined, it’s no surprise that Kyrie Irving has taken on a huge role for this Nets team, and he has really come through as of late, averaging 38 PPG over his last five games. He now gets a great matchup against the Lakers who rank 27th in points allowed, while also ranking 21st in DEF and playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA this season, creating a great matchup for Kyrie and the Nets.
Josh Giddey o5.5 assists
(-120, DraftKings)
Josh Giddey has gone over this number in six of his last nine games, and in the three games he went under this number, he failed to play 30 minutes. With this game sitting at a five-point spread, we can expect Giddey to have a better chance at playing 30+ minutes. This should be a great environment for offensive production as well, as both teams rank in the top 4 in pace, and this game has a 243 point total. When you look at Giddey’s recent box scores, when he goes over this number he can go WAY over this number, as he has four games with 8+ assists in his last nine contests. For that reason, I also have interest in a ladder here. On FanDuel, you can get Giddey to record 8+ assists at +260, and 10+ assists at +700.
Kyle Kuzma o7.5 rebounds
(+110, DraftKings)
Kyle Kuzma has been solid on the glass as of late, averaging 9.2 RPG over his last five games, and posting 9+ rebounds in five of his last six contests. Kripstaps Porzingis has a chance to return tonight. However this hasn’t harmed Kuzma’s rebounding production so far this season, as he is averaging slightly more rebounds per minute with Porzingis on the floor with him this season.
