NBA Best Bets of the Day (1/3)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We’ve got nine games Friday full of interesting matchups. The Boston Celtics visit their former head coach Ime Udoka in Houston against the Rockets. The Detroit Pistons — yes, those Pistons — are seven-point favorites for the first time in years. The New York Knicks take their nine-game win streak to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder and their 13-game streak. The best player in the world, Nikola Jokić, will host the soon to be best player in the world, Victor Wembanyama.

There is plenty of basketball for us to enjoy, but is there any basketball worth betting on? That’s the question I’m here to answer, and I’m reminded of one of my favorite adages about wagering. You don’t have to bet on a game if you’re watching it and you don’t have to watch a game just because you bet on it.

Keep the latter part of that in mind as you read my best bet for the night.

NBA Best Bet for Friday

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

Current Line – Magic -1.5, 217
My Projection – Raptors 107, Magic 106  
Key Injuries – Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are out. RJ Barrett is doubtful.

These two teams have had to deal with constant adversity this season due to injuries. The Magic lost Paolo Banchero Oct. 30 and lost Franz Wagner about five weeks later Dec. 6. The Raptors have yet to play a single game with Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley together, and Friday will continue that streak. It’s hard for teams to play without their best players and difficult to adjust as those players work themselves back into shape. The Magic, thanks to the wonderful work of coach Jamal Mosley and a deep roster, are 20-15 and the 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. Things have been much worse for the Raptors, who are 8-26. It’s a shame we won’t see the best versions of these teams Friday, but I still think it could be an entertaining game. Barnes and Quickley should be able to score just enough points to get the Raptors the win, but I, like the market, make this game very close and I won’t be betting on either side.

Instead, I see an edge for us in the total. The Magic have built their success on the shoulders of their excellent defense. They have the third-best defense in the NBA, which covers up for their 26^th ranked offense to give them the ninth-best rating overall. The Raptors have one of the worst defenses in the NBA, but their rating improves a few points per 100 possessions at home and their offense remains one of the league’s worst even when playing at home. The Magic have a few good, athletic defenders who can slow down Barnes and Jalen Suggs will surely keep Quickley from producing good shots. On the other end, the Raptors don’t have many good defenders, but the Magic don’t really have any gifted scorers. Put this all together, and this game ought to be pretty ugly. I make the total 213, which is in line with the FTN model, which is also at 213. Books are hanging 217, which gives a nice edge to bet the under in this game, so let’s do it.

Bet

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors Under 217 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.