Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! I get it. You’re probably still celebrating your Chiefs bet or being bummed about your Ravens/49ers parlay, but the National Basketball Association persists. It’s a long season that can be tough, but at the same time, it’s nice to know that there will always be a professional basketball game being played each day with very few exceptions. We have 12 games to handicap today, and I’ll spill the beans early, they are all fraught with schedule and player availability concerns. That means there are very few wagers that can be made this early in the day.
Today is a great day to get in the FTN Bets Discord if you haven’t already. There are several games I’ll bet close to tip-off when we know who is playing, and all of my player prop bets go in there. If you need a discount code, check out the video edition of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. There’s a code in the banner at the bottom, and you can leave a comment with any questions you might have. Onto basketball!
New York Knicks at Charlotte Hornets
Current Line – Knicks -8.5, 223.5
My Projection – Knicks 116, Hornets 105
Key Injuries – Julis Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Gordon Hayward, and Mark Williams are out.
The Charlotte Hornets season seems to be over even though they have 38 games left to play. They are just 10-34, which ties them for the fourth-worst record in the NBA and puts them in close competition for the best odds for the first pick in the next draft. Charlotte recently traded Terry Rozier and is trying to trade or buy out several other players like Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward and/or P.J. Washington. There was some hope for optimism before the season for a young team full of athletic wings. Unfortunately, not enough of those players are good shooters, and their best player, LaMelo Ball, has missed half of the season to date. They are a bad team trying to get worse and likely gassing up the tank for the rest of the season.
Tonight they face the New York Knickerbockers, who are having a great season. The Knicks are 29-17, which is just 15 wins shy of their preseason regular season win total, and there are still 36 games left to play. I was concerned the loss of Mitchell Robinson would stall their progress, but Isaiah Hartenstein has been even better than Robinson, and the acquisition of OG Anunoby has taken this team to a higher level. New York has the best defensive rating in the league since making that deal and has continued to crush bad teams like they have all season. The Hornets are just that kind of team. It’s the first night of a back-to-back, which for most teams means less than 100% effort and the potential to rest stars. That’s not how Tom Thibodeau rolls. He always pushes his team to give everything they have and never shies away from playing someone 40+ minutes. I love this spot for New York and would have bet the spread at the opener of -5.5/6 but will happily bet a Hornets team total under at 107.5. I expect Charlotte to score just 105 tonight.
Bets
Charlotte Hornets Team Total Under 107.5 (BetMGM)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavalier +2, 225.5 – This is a tough schedule spot for the Clippers, and frankly, there are several more bad schedule spots for them this week. Tonight is their third game of a seven-game eastern road trip. Los Angeles crushed the Celtics in Boston on Saturday, and tonight they’re in Cleveland to face the Cavaliers who are 9-1 in their last 10 games. This could be a good spot for the Cavs to continue their winning ways by catching a team mired in a long road trip playing less than their best, but they may have to adjust their lineups and rotations to make room for a returning player. Evan Mobley has missed a few weeks with a left knee injury but is listed as questionable. Mobley is a good player and will make the team better, but for his first few games it could be tough for other players to give up their minutes and the roles they played during a dominant stretch. My projections make this Cavaliers +1.5, which is close to market, and I’m just not sure how Cleveland will play while working Mobley back into the fold. Let’s pass on this game and watch how things go.
New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics -8, 232 – I make this game Celtics -6 with a total of 233. That’s a decent edge on the Pelicans, but not quite enough to get me to place a wager especially with how poorly the Pelicans have played against better competition. New Orleans lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points and the Milwaukee Bucks also by 24 points over the weekend. As talented as New Orleans’ roster is, they don’t have a true superstar and might be too focused on two-pointers in a three-pointer league. The Celtics might be without Kristaps Porzingis, which is why my model likes the Pelicans. Porzingis has been arguably the most important player for Boston despite not being their best player. The Latvian center unlocks the team’s full potential with his size, shooting and defensive impact. This spread opened 9 and has drifted down to 8, which tells me the market thinks the Zinger is in, or maybe we have a late Zion Williamson rest announcement. I’m close to the market and don’t really want to bet on either side, so I’m not placing any wagers on this game.
Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets +1, 232.5 – Who’s ready for some three-point shot variance? Both of these teams are top 10 in the NBA in three-point shot attempts per game, taking over 37 threes per game. This is the new NBA, and as much as I love it as a fan, it makes things difficult as a bettor. Both shoot about 35% from beyond the arc and generate 40 points per game on those shots. If one team can shoot 40% and the other only 33%, that creates a nine-point disparity. If one team can get up 45 three-point attempts and the other only shoots 35 threes, that creates an 11-point disparity. These are big differences generated by small changes in performance. That makes these games difficult to handicap, but at the same time, they offer more value in the alternate spread and total markets because there is a wider range of outcomes. I’m close to backing Brooklyn because this is the first night of a road back-to-back for Utah, and I make this game Brooklyn -2. But I’m not placing a wager now. I’ll wait for the alternate spread markets to open and maybe play Nets -2 or -3. Be sure you’re in the FTNBets Discord to get that bet if/when I make it.
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat -3.5, 229.5 – The Suns lost by 15 to the Orlando Magic on the first night of their South Florida back-to-back. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal all played 35+ minutes in that game. We don’t have an official injury report yet for Phoenix, but I would not be surprised to see one, if not all three of those players listed as questionable. This should be a great spot to back Miami, but they have lost six games in a row by an average of 16+ points per game. I bet some Miami to win the Eastern Conference last week and remain confident that they will be a scary team in a few months, but that doesn’t mean they are even a good team right now. With everyone on Phoenix playing, I make the Suns -4, but as I mentioned there is no guarantee that the Suns’ big three play. There is also concern about the second night of a back-to-back, which can be especially tough on a veteran team like Phoenix. Once the injury report shapes up, I might find a wager here, but I doubt that. I’m going to pass on this game.
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets +1, 230 – I’m not saying that finally taking the Lakers out of this section on Thursday to lose money betting against Los Angeles has me worried, but it doesn’t mean I’m not superstitious. As is tradition, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as questionable, and we shouldn’t make a bet until we know that information. I make this Lakers -2 with a total of 231 if both LA stars are on the floor in Houston. But if either misses the game this could be a good spot to be an under or even back the Rockets despite how bad Houston has played these last few weeks. No bets for now, but maybe a bet later once we know who is playing.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder -2, 226 – This will be the fourth matchup between these two teams. Minnesota was -3 twice at home on Nov. 28 and Jan. 20, and OKC was -2.5 at home on Dec. 26. The Thunder covered twice, and the game on Nov. 28 was a push. You can see the market basically gave us the same number we saw about a month ago even though OKC played last night and lost to the Pistons in Detroit. If you look closer at the box score, you’ll see that the Thunder effectively punted last night’s game. None of their starters played more than 30 minutes and most didn’t play the fourth quarter despite the fact that OKC was losing. Unfortunately, the market seems to also know this, which is why the adjustment was so small from the last time these teams played in Oklahoma City. I think the Thunder are a better team and a bad matchup for the Timberwolves, but I only make this OKC -3.5, and that’s not a big enough edge to bet. Enjoy the game, but I’m not going to bet it.
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies +8.5, 225 – It would love to back the Grizzlies in this game, but it’s just too bad of a schedule spot. It’s the third game in four nights and the second game in two nights for Memphis who hasn’t played a game without traveling the day prior for almost two weeks. They did play at home on Friday, but that was after a four-game road trip and before playing in Indiana against the Pacers yesterday. Fatigue builds up from all the travel, and teams generally play worse the more they have to fly from arena to arena. I make the Kings 6-point favorites, which is an edge, but not a big enough edge to back a team that’s traveled that much. It’s Memphis or pass, and I choose to pass.
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs -3.5, 241.5 – So, are the Spurs really going to win three games in a row? I’m not saying they can’t, especially after beating the Minnesota Timberwolves and Portland Trail Blazers on back-to-back nights, but do they really want to win a third game in a row? San Antonio has been not-so-casually tanking for most of this season by resting players and “experimenting with unconventional point guards” to start this year. Now, were they doing that on purpose, or did they really not know that Tre Jones is good and should be the starter at point? I’m sure that I don’t know, and I’m sure that I’m already sick of thinking about this for as long as I have. Don’t bet this game. Don’t even think about this game. Honestly, part of me thought about not even writing anything about this game, and I think that part of my brain was smarter than the part that just wrote all of this.
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks -4, 228.5 – As seems to be the theme for today, the team I want to bet on is playing the second night of a back-to-back on the road. No Kyrie Irving for Dallas, but I still make the Mavericks only 2-point favorites. Kudos to anyone who scooped the opening line overnight at Magic +6, but that is long gone. Orlando matches up nicely against Dallas. They have a team full of tall, long athletic defenders who keep offenses from finding space to operate. Unfortunately for the Magic, the Mavericks have Luka Doncic, who can score and create good shots against any team. Irving won’t be there to help, but Doncic will have his pick-and-roll partner Dereck Lively to help him get into the lane and suck the defense in to create space for shooters on the outside. It should be a great game to watch, but I just don’t see any value on either side. I think Orlando can keep it close and possibly even win, but their spread isn’t big enough especially given the rest concerns.
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets -4, 238.5 – This potential NBA Finals preview should be a great game to watch. But as that often means, it’s not a great game to bet. Glenn Rivers make his debut as Milwaukee’s head coach, which adds a little extra juice to the matchup. I make this game Denver -3 with a total of 241. That has me close to an over, but the Nuggets have been an under team and generally control the pace at home. This game should also have a “playoff feel” to it, which means I expect the end of the game to slow to a halt if the score is close. In tight situations, teams do a better job of running their offense for as long as it takes to get a good shot. That means they eat up more clock and take less shots than they would have in the previous three quarters. There could be some value in betting the under live if the margin is less than six points at the end of the third quarter. For now, I can’t advise we make any wagers.
Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers +9, 224 – Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are questionable. The Trail Blazers played last night, and we don’t have an official injury report for them yet. How can we possibly bet this game when we have no idea who will be playing? The current line suggests that all of the 76ers will be on the court, which is probably the smart way to book this, but luckily we are not bookmakers and don’t have to do anything. Embiid is notorious for resting on the road, but given the 65 games played requirement to win the MVP, this would be a good spot for him to play for nearly three quarters and then rest for the final frame. That said, Philadelphia plays in Golden State tomorrow, so maybe they punt tonight’s game. It should be a 76ers smash shot, but we’ll have to wait for the injury report to clear up before we make any wagers. Check the FTN Bets Discord later because I’ll put any bets I eventually make in the #nba-plays channel.
