NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Draymond Green Under 9.5 Rebounds
(-132, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Draymond Green has posted three straight performances of double-digit rebounds, but his season average is still just over 7. It is clear that his role has changed, and he is being asked to be more of a rebounder now that he is starting at center instead of Kevon Looney, This is still a really tough matchup for rebounders, as the Raptors rank 12th in rebounds allowed and third in offensive rebounds allowed.
Kyle Anderson Over 4.5 Assists
(+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Any time a bet is plus-money but my model projects the player to go over the total, it is always going to catch my eye. My model projects Kyle Anderson for 5.57 assists against his former team, the Memphis Grizzlies. Anderson is averaging 5.5 assists over his last 10 games and has at least 6 in four of his last six.
Kyle Lowry Under 18.5 PRA
(-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kyle Lowry has been losing minutes and fast lately, failing to crack 30 minutes in each of his last four games, while players like Victor Oladipo and Haywood Highsmith get more minutes. Lowry is rumored to be on the trading block, so maybe that is part of it, but regardless, with a minutes projection of 28 minutes, my model has him for 7 points, 3.5 assists and 3 rebounds.
