Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! What a night in the Association we had Monday. Joel Embiid scored 70 points, the most points ever scored by a Philadelphia 76er in one game and tied for the 12th most ever scored in a single game. Even more interesting was that Embiid was not guaranteed to have scored the most points on the night when his game ended. Karl-Anthony Towns set the NBA record for most points scored in the first half of a game with 44, though he finished with only 62.
It was just the third time in NBA history a player has scored 70-plus and another player has topped 60 on the same night. The first was Dec. 8, 1961, when Wilt Chamberlain scored 78 for the Philadelphia Warriors and Elgin Baylor scored 63 for the Lakers. The second was April 9, 1978, on the last day of the season when David Thompson scored 73 in an attempt to surpass George Gervin for most points per game averaged in the season. Gervin had 63 himself that night after Thompson’s performance and managed to win the points-per-game title.
Will there be more history made Tuesday ? Let’s dive into each game to see what might happen and how we can use that information to make a good bet or two.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Current Line – Pelicans -6, 239.5
My Projection – Pelicans 123, Jazz 114
Key Injuries – Kris Dunn is questionable.
The Jazz have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the last month. They are top 10 in offensive and defensive rating in that time period and top five in net rating. The Jazz are finally healthy and have organized their lineups so that they have a good starting five and a good second five to bring off the bench. It’s a team without a star but also a team without a weak link, and the NBA regular season is more about depth than it is about star power. The season is long, arduous and full of injury problems, so having 10-plus players who are all at worst average is a great asset. Tuesday, they face the New Orleans Pelicans, also a deep team, which neutralizes some of the advantages the Jazz are used to having. The Pelicans also have more star power and have at least three of the four best players on the floor. New Orleans loves to attack the basket and wins games at the rim where Utah can struggle to defend their opponents. This looks like a good matchup to me for the Pelicans.
This will be the fourth matchup between these teams, so let’s take a look back the previous three games to see how the market has shifted. Unfortunately, the first two games were either a bad schedule spot and/or a game where key players were missing, but luckily their third meeting about a month ago gives us some good perspective. Dec. 28, both teams were healthy and playing in New Orleans. The Pelicans closed as 9-point favorites with a total of 239.5. Utah managed to have seven extra possessions (turnover margin + offensive rebound margin) and attempted 10 more free throws. It’s rare for any team to do that to New Orleans and even with those advantages, the Jazz still lost the game by seven points. That’s a cover for Utah, but more often than not New Orleans wins that game by double digits. Tuesday the spread is six, which is a three-point adjustment, and I don’t think that’s appropriate. The Jazz are winning and do deserve to be upgraded, but the Pelicans don’t deserve a downgrade and moving the Jazz three points is too many. I make this game Pelicans -9, a 1.5-point adjustment from what I made it Dec. 28. I’ll happily lay the six for the full game and also play the Pelicans -3.5 in the first half of the game. I make the first-half line Pelicans -5, and the Jazz are one of the worst first-half teams on the road.
Bets
New Orleans Pelicans -6 (-110, Caesars)
New Orleans Pelicans First Half -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Line – Thunder -13.5, 233.5
My Projection – Thunder 122, Trail Blazers 106
Key Injuries – Shaedon Sharpe is out.
The largest margin of victory in the NBA this season was the Thunder’s 62-point victory over the Trail Blazers Jan. 11. The Thunder closed as -13.5-point favorites despite having to play their third game in four nights and their second in two days. There have been eight games this season in which a team has won by 43 points or more. One is that victory, and another is the Thunder’s 43-point win over the Trail Blazers Nov. 19. In that November matchup, the Thunder were again in a three-in-four/back-to-back schedule spot and closed as only 6.5 favorites in Portland. That means Oklahoma City has beaten Portland by an average of 53 points this season. In those games the Trail Blazers have averaged 84 points. So, what do you make the spread for their third meeting? Surely books aren’t going to hang Thunder -49, -39, -29 or even -19, but should they be thinking that way?
Well, the market hasn’t adjusted the spread at all from their most recent game, the 62-point win. Generally, one game shouldn’t sway pricing in a big way, but part of me thinks there’s a good case to do it for this matchup. Oklahoma City is one of the worst possible matchups for a team like Portland. The Thunder have an MVP candidate, a few players with All-Star potential, and more talent at just about every position than the Trail Blazers. Unlike a lot of the best teams, Oklahoma City doesn’t play down to their competition and/or overlook bad teams. They generally win these games by a lot, and I think they will do that again, but I’m not laying the 13.5. I make it Thunder -16, which is a decent edge, but I think the better bet is the Blazers team total under. OKC’s defense is very consistent and taking the team total under can still cash if the Thunder offense has an off night or plays at a slow pace to save some energy. I might even add an alternate team total, but I want to see how this market firms up. I’ll add additional bets in the FTNBets Discord, but grab the Portland team total under at 109.5 -115.
Bet
Portland Trail Blazers Team Total Under 109.5 (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers +5, 238
The Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton here and for the next few games. They are a difficult team to handicap without their star, who is the engine for their entire offense, and we also have to figure out how Pascal Siakam will fit into things. Denver is the much better team, but this is a nonconference game on the road. I’m not sure I can trust the Nuggets to give their best effort and the way the Pacers shoot three pointers they can always sneak inside the number late in the game. I make it Nuggets -7, but I’m not betting anything in this game. Too much remains unknown about how the Pacers will play and if the Nuggets will play their best.
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets +4, 223.5
Isaiah Hartenstein questionable, which makes this a tough game to bet. He’s been excellent as the replacement for Mitchell Robinson. Hartenstein has made the Knicks defense better and he’s a dark-horse candidate to finish second in the voting for Defensive Player of the Year (Rudy Gobert is going to win). If Hartenstein is in, I think this game goes under that total and the Knicks cover the four-point spread. If Hartenstein is out, this profiles as an over game and the Nets are scary to fade when the three-point shots start flying. We have to wait to place our wagers. Check the FTN Bets Discord when the Hartenstein news clears up, because I’ll put any bets I make at that time in the #nba-plays channel.
Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers -8.5, 230.5
LeBron James is out, which is why this spread is so big, and I agree it should be this big. I make the spread Clippers -10 with a total of 229 for battle for Los Angeles. That’s a small edge on the Clippers, but not quite big enough for me to make a bet. Anthony Davis has been great this year and had a few spectacular games without LeBron. The Clippers don’t have a defender who can slow down AD, especially with Ivica Zubac out, so Davis could keep this game close on his own. At the same time, the Lakers have no answer for Kawhi Leonard or Paul George so I could see the Clippers winning by 20-plus as Davis rests late. In short, I just don’t feel strongly enough either way in this game so I’m not betting it.
