Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Jaren Jackson o14.5 points
(-111, FanDuel)
Jaren Jackson is averaging over 16.5 points per game in his last 10 contests and 18 points per game against the Kings this season. My model projects him for close to 17 points in this plus-matchup against Sacramento who rank 24th in points allowed and 28th in FG% allowed.
Kevin Huerter o2.5 Threes Made
(-108, FanDuel)
Kevin Huerter has hit this number in six of his last 10 but just twice in the last two games. However, this should be a good matchup to get back on track, as the Grizzlies rank 21st in 3PTs allowed.
Lauri Markkanen o26.5 points
(-113, FanDuel)
Lauri Markkanen has been red-hot lately, averaging 30 PPG over his last 10 games and scoring at least 27 points in seven of his last 10. I don’t expect the roll to stop now, as he gets a matchup against Charlotte who is 28th in points allowed, 25th in threes allowed and also bottom five against opposing forwards. My model backs this, and I have him projected for over 29 points.
