Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games.
I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.
Let’s get to it.
Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
(-123, Caesars)
Marcus Smart should step into a larger role with no Jaylen Brown and also gets a great matchup here against Charlotte. He projects for nearly 9 assists and 5 rebounds in my model.
Desmond Bane Over 4.5 Rebounds
(-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Desmond Bane has gone over this number in five of his last six games as he has begun to see more minutes after returning from a toe injury. Bane projects for nearly 5.5 rebounds in this matchup against the shorthanded Pacers.
Joel Embiid Over 35.5 Points + Assists
(-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Joel Embiid projects for over 34 points alone in a great matchup against the Jazz, and my model also has him adding over 4 assists in this spot. The Jazz have been putrid against big men, and Embiid is definitely someone to take advantage of a good matchup.
