Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chris Paul Signs with the San Antonio Spurs
When you look back on his career, Chris Paul’s tenure in Golden State will be easy to forget. Paul averaged just 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game with the Warriors last season. The fit was always a bit odd, as the Warriors play up tempo and shoot a ton of threes, while Paul wants to slow the game down, run the pick and roll, etc. And after playing with veterans like Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, Paul will now look to lead a young team in San Antonio.
Shortly after being waived by the Warriors, Paul agreed to a one-year, $11 million-plus deal with the San Antonio Spurs. Paul will instantly become a mentor for Tre Jones and Stephon Castle in the backcourt, and, of course, future All-NBA center Victor Wembanyama. This past season, San Antonio posted the league’s fifth-highest frequency rate on plays to the roll man out of the pick-and-roll (6.7%) but were just 24th in points per possession off the play type (1.07). I’d expect plenty of two-man action with Paul and Wemby, while the efficiency should be much improved, too. Playing alongside Paul in Oklahoma City in 2019, Steven Adams shot roughly 69% from the field as the roll man and he’s not on the same level as Wembanyama. And during his rookie year, Wembanyama was much better when Tre Jones was on the court for San Antonio, so imagine what he can do in his second year with not just Jones, but one of the greatest point guards of all time, too.
I’m not expecting San Antonio to suddenly make a push for the playoffs or anything in 2025. But they are going to be a fun team to watch, while the arrow is certainly pointing up.
Jonas Valanciunas to Join the Washington Wizards
After trading Daniel Gafford at the deadline this season, there was clearly a spot for a center upgrade for the Washington Wizards. They were often running Kyle Kuzma at the five after the Gafford trade. But Washington addressed the position right away in free agency, signing Jonas Valanciunas to a three-year, $30 million deal Sunday. In three seasons with the Pelicans, Valanciunas averaged 14.6 points, 10.1 rebounds and 2.1 assists per game. On a per-minute basis, Valanciunas has always been one of the better rebounders in the league, though his defensive liabilities have often limited his minutes. He averaged just over 26 minutes per game during his time in New Orleans. When fully healthy, one of the Pelicans’ favorite lineups to roll out featured Zion Williamson at power forward and Larry Nance at center, as JoVal would often not close games. Still, he only missed 11 regular season games over his three seasons in New Orleans, and suddenly the Pelicans’ frontcourt looks rather shallow. With Andre Drummond returning to the 76ers, the top available free agent centers for the Pelicans to consider are Isaiah Hartenstein, Mo Wagner and Goga Bitadze. But with Nance traded to Atlanta as part of the Dejounte Murray deal, two of New Orleans’ top three frontcourt players are now gone.
For Washington, bolstering the interior was clearly a point of emphasis. Only Charlotte averaged fewer rebounds per game than the Wizards in 2023-24 (41.0), while their 55.9% rebound conversion rate was the seventh-lowest rate in the league. With his size and strength, Valanciunas can give Washington an interesting complement to second overall selection, Alexandre Sarr.
