Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The main NBA slate tonight has one game that is sure to be wildly chalky, in part because of the total, and in part because this is the third time we’ve seen the matchup already. There are already some value plays that will be very chalky, so let’s dive in and find out who we need to consider.
1. The Houston Rockets allow 1.48 points per possession to the roll man
Houston has not been able to defend the pick-and-roll at all, especially the man rolling toward the basket. That’s not what you want to see when Chris Paul is on the other side of things since he runs that play at the fifth-highest frequency. Bismack Biyombo should start for the injured Deandre Ayton, and he will almost surely be chalky, but it’s a wonderful spot.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers allow 35 3-point field goal attempts per game
They’re playing the Denver Nuggets tonight, and DraftKings has made a bad pricing error for Michael Porter He’s far, far too cheap since Jamal Murray is still having his minutes watched, and Porter is shooting over 54% from 3-point distance. He’s probably very popular, but I’ll be part of the field that makes him popular.
3. Minnesota and San Antonio have the highest total of the night
Both teams are in the top 10 in possessions per game, and this is the third time they’ll play each other already. The last time they tangled, the total was 256 points (the first game was solid at 221), and I want at least two players from this game in the majority of my lineups.
4. Paolo Banchero is $8,000 on DraftKings
He still isn’t expensive enough, either. The Magic are frightfully thin, and he just posted 48.0 DK points in just 27 minutes. Paolo Banchero is over 1.50 points per minute in the situation Orlando is in tonight, and even against a tough Mavericks squad, I’m very interested in Banchero. He’s been everything a team could want from a No. 1 overall pick so far.
5. Golden State is allowing the eighth-highest frequency from the 3-point range
They played a tough overtime game last night, so they could rest some players, but regardless of that, Bojan Bogdanovic has my attention. The Warriors are allowing a ton of 3-point attempts, and Bogdanovic is under $6,000 on DK. He also is under $6,000, and that feels like a solid bargain tonight.
