Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There are only four games in the NBA Thursday, but it is full of star power. One game is likely going to be very popular as the Memphis Grizzlies square off with the Sacramento Kings, and the total is roughly 10 points higher than the other three. Let’s talk about some stats to get our DFS lineups kicked off.
1. Ja Morant is scoring 17 points per game as the pick-and-roll ball handler
We’re starting in the Grizzlies game, and even though Dillon Brooks played in the last game, Morant was still over 60 DK points again. He’s averaging over 35 real points per game and he’s not going to shoot 60% from beyond the arc for much longer. Still, he leads the league in points scored as a pick-and-roll ball handler and the Kings have allowed the fifth-highest points and the fourth-highest points per possession. While they have only allowed the second-fewest points in the paint but Morant can get to the rim against anyone and he’s averaging 1.66 points per minute in the best game environment on the night.
2. Christian Wood has a 32.6% usage rate
One of the best ways to tell this story is to let our Advanced DvP do the work –
I believe Wood won’t carry a ton of popularity due to the salary, which is up there. However, his minutes have gone up in every game and he played 29 minutes last time. The Mavericks are going to have a tough time keeping him off the court with how well he’s playing offensively and the chemistry between him and Luka Doncic is off the charts already. The Nets are 29th in defensive rating and are allowing the fifth-most field goal attempts within five feet of the basket with the ninth-highest conversion rate. Of the 37 field goals Wood has taken, 17 have been within five feet, and he shouldn’t find much resistance.
3. Paul George is 11th in points per possession in isolation
George is questionable but appears to be on the right side of playing, and it’s been an uneven start for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard is out, as is Marcus Morris. When Kawhi has been off the floor, George is averaging 1.43 points per minute. We’ve seen his ceiling once and his low-water mark twice in his three games. The Thunder are 15th in allowing points in isolation but they’ve held the opposition to a 32.3% field goal rate. That can’t last and they are facing it the 11th most in the league.
4. Keegan Murray is averaging 35.5 minutes per game
The fantasy production has not been spectacular for the rookie so far, but he played 38 minutes in the past game and that workload for this salary is appealing. The usage is not high at 16.6% with just 0.80 points per minute but Memphis is dead last in defensive rating. It will be interesting to see how popular he is and there would be an argument to fade him in GPP. If he’s popular and only scores 26-30 DK points, that’s not going to help you much. De’Aaron Fox is eating so much of the usage rate at 33.6% that the other players might have a bit of a lower ceiling.
5. Bam Adebayo is averaging 0.32 fewer points per minute this year
Some of his issues have simply been shooting woes because last year, his true shooting was 60.9% and this season he is only at 54.7%. His usage has dipped around 3% and some of that can be directed toward Tyler Herro starting. However, Adebayo played under 30 minutes last night due to a blowout and the Warriors have been smashed by skilled centers this year, ranking 29th in fantasy points allowed. No team has allowed more points in the paint and Adebayo is averaging seven paint touches per game and taking nearly five attempts per game. This is a wonderful spot for him — and the Warriors are only 22nd in defensive rating early on.
