Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA DFS slate Wednesday isn’t quite as big as Monday’s, but 12 games are still plenty and we have a lot of work ahead of us. There are injuries that the slate hinges on already, but we can start building some lineups with these five stats.
1. Michael Porter is shooting 49.3% from a 3-point distance
The Nuggets take on the Pacers, and that game has the highest total of the entire slate. We have two teams that play in the top 10 in pace, Indiana is 11th in possessions per game, and they are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. If those factors didn’t already point toward a shootout, the Pacers are in the bottom eight in 3-point frequency allowed and they allow the highest field goal rate from beyond the arc. Porter is one of the best shooters from downtown early on and has upside for 40-plus DK points.
2. Joe Harris has played at least 31 minutes in consecutive minutes
One of the primary goals on this slate could involve playing the most expensive player on the slate so we need some value. Enter Harris, who is getting healthier and is playing more. He’s very affordable and Kyrie Irving is still out for this matchup against the New York Knicks. His carer mark from a 3-point distance is 43.7% but he’s only shot 32.6% so far, a side effect of coming back from injury. The game where he finds his stroke is going to allow him to smash this salary. The Knicks are only allowing the 10th-lowest field goal rate but they also allow the most attempts per game at 42.0.
3. Bobby Portis averages 1.45 points per minute with Jrue Holiday off the floor
The Bucks play the Thunder Wednesday, and Holiday is listed as doubtful, so we can turn to plenty of Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to be very popular and he should be, but Portis has played 78 minutes without Holiday and sports a 28.7% usage rate as well. Against a very average (at best) Thunder frontcourt, we can utilize Bucks stacks as a bedrock of lineups.
4. Darius Garland has a 42% assist rate
I would be surprised if Garland isn’t chalky, but how can you argue? He’s still under $7,000, it’s a giant pace-up spot for Cleveland because the Kings are ninth in pace (Cleveland is 25th), and Garland also has a 28.2% usage rate and 1.15 points per minute. If that wasn’t enough, Garland is the ball handler in pick-and-roll at a frequency of 36.5% and the Kings are allowing the fourth-most points per game to the ball handler. When you see the assist rate, the pace, and the number of points the Kings allow, this is a smash play in the late-night hammer at a far too cheap salary.
5. Cameron Payne has scored 1.09 points per minute when Chris Paul is off the floor
We don’t know if Paul will play — he was forced to leave Monday’s game early. Paul downplayed the injury but the player himself is about the worst source for an injury report and in my eyes, Phoenix has very little incentive to push Paul in November. Payne would surely step into the starting with a 28.0% usage rate, and a 27.9% assist rate, and the matchup with the Timberwolves would be solid as they play at the third-highest pace in basketball.
