Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Monday offers us one of the most unique and challenging slates of the season, because every team plays.
Conversely, everyone is off tomorrow, so this evening is loaded with NBA goodness, and it’s going to be quite the night trying to put together some strong lineups.
1. Terry Rozier is only $7,700 on DraftKings
There are going to be a lot of players who seem like they’re great plays tonight, but I want to continually remind myself Terry Rozier is nearly $1,000 too cheap. The Hornets are still without both LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward, which spikes Rozier’s usage rate of over 31%. He played 36 minutes coming back from an ankle injury, so that is not a concern. Not only did the Wizards play last night, but they also allow the highest field goal rate from 3-point distance this season, and Rozier is shooting 41.4% from downtown. He should be penciled in for 40-45 DK points, and the ceiling is above 50.
2. Golden State is 30th in points allowed in the paint
They face the Kings, so you could use this stat for De’Aaron Fox or Domantas Sabonis, but Fox has my eye. This is an uptempo game and is tied for the best stack in the NBA Game Environment Tool. Fox is driving to the hoop the sixth most, and his 12.7 points from drives is the fifth-most in the league. Pairing him with a Warrior makes for a nice late-night hammer.
3. The Spurs allow the fifth-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance
We’ve been chasing the game for Michael Porter to go off in a big way, and this could be it. The spread is closer, since the Nuggets are on the road against the Spurs, and Nikola Jokic has been content to not play the same style he was forced to last season. He’s not as aggressive, and that lends more chances to Porter, who has attempted 7.4 shots per game from beyond the arc. Among the top 25 in attempts, only one player has a higher field goal rate than Porter’s 49.2%.
4. The Atlanta Hawks allow a 54.0% effective field goal rate in transition.
Not that they have the capability of stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo in any way, but they should be allowing more points than the current 18.9 points per game in transition. They’ve only faced 17.7 transition possessions per game, the eighth fewest in the league. Giannis should be fully rested after sitting out the last game and leads the league in transition points at 9.3, two points higher than anyone else. With all 30 teams on the slate, we can bet that there will be values to emerge that make it easy to pay up for Giannis, who is averaging 1.84 points per minute for the short-handed Bucks this season.
5. Darius Garland played about 39 minutes yesterday
This would lead me to believe that his ankle is healed up after he missed a game on Friday. Since coming back from an eye injury in the opener, he’s played 42 and 39 minutes. The game when he played 42 went to overtime, but the workload is immense for the new-look Cavaliers, and the Darius Garland–Donovan Mitchell backcourt has looked like it could pay off in a major way this year for Cleveland. They have meshed well since Mitchell can handle some of the scoring burden Garland had last season, and Garland is averaging 7.3 assists per game already with a usage rate of over 28.5% while producing 1.22 points per minute. This is likely the last game we get to play him under $7,000 on DK, and I’ll happily take advantage tonight.
