NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way that sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around for Wednesday’s DFS slate.
1. 103.4
The Lakers lead the NBA in pace at 103.4. While most teams have slowed down a bit, the Lakers are actually getting faster, climbing to 105.0 over their last five games. Jerami Grant and Justise Winslow are among the players who benefit most from pace in the league, making them premiere targets on tonight’s massive slate. The Blazers get the second highest pace boost of the slate according to the Game Environments Tool.
2. 7.8
The Pacers allow the fourth-most points per game on putbacks (7.8). This comes as no surprise since Myles Turner is an elite shot blocker. In fact, this is just one area where Indiana hemorrhages production to opposing bigs. Check out the Advanced DvP matchup:
$9.2k is a bit of a steep price for Domantas Sabonis, but his upside against his old team is through the roof.
3. 0.98
The Kings allow 0.98 points per possession to pick & roll ball-handlers, second most in the league. They also face PnRs enough to allow the third-most PnR points per game to ball-handlers.
This works right into Tyrese Haliburton’s hands, as Haliburton scores 9 of his 19.9 points per game in the PnR. Add in a pace boost and this is an equally great spot for Haliburton as it is for Sabonis, creating a wonderful correlation opportunity.
4. 18.0%
The Rockets turn the ball over 18% of the time, more than a full percentage point above the second-highest rate in the league. Coupled with the pace boost, this gives Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown more upside than they typically have around $6k. Both guys flopped in their last game vs. this same Houston team, so I’m expecting low roster percentage on both.
5. 36
Nicolas Claxton played a season-high 36 minutes last game, reaching the 30-minute mark for the third time in his last four opportunities. Given Claxton’s 1.11 FPPM ratio, this increase in playing time (still only averages 27.2 mpg) is incredibly important. Claxton averages 2.9 blocks + steals per game and Washington is 29th against rim protectors, so the matchup has a chance to boost his FPPM in addition to his hopefully continued increase in playing time.
