NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
It’s a small DFS slate in the NBA Tuesday with just three games, but we have one marquee matchup and two other games that offer plenty of fantasy appeal. We are still missing some stars from the Clippers in the late game but the Warriors facing the Mavericks make up for that loss. Let’s dig in and find five stats that can help us get to the top of the leaderboards Tuesday.
1. Mitchell Robinson played 34 minutes in his last game
We’re going to need some cheaper players if we want access to the Warriors game, and Robinson fills that role. He’s back to playing big minutes for the Knick after missing some time with an injury and the Pistons are 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint and 18th in points. The big man has 6.3 paint touches per game this season for New York and he scores 0.98 points per minute. On top of that, Robinson has utilized the putback at the highest frequency of any player in the league. It hasn’t amounted to a ton of points per game since he can have issues with playing time between fouls and the injury but the Pistons are allowing the fourth-most points per game to putbacks.
2. Klay Thompson is scoring the most points off screens in the NBA
The shooting has started to come back around for Thompson, and despite him probably never get back to his pre-injury form, he can still shoot the lights out. He’s at 44.8% from beyond the arc in November so his legs have gotten back under him, it would appear. Not only has his overall 3-point shooting come back, but he’s scoring 4.2 points per game and the next closest player is at 3.6. Dallas has allowed the seventh-highest field goal rate defending this play type but what is most scary for Thompson is he’s leading the league despite shooting 31.0%. If his shooting overall is improving, it’s only a matter of time before his efficiency off screens picks up further and very few players have the upside that he does on DK where you have the 3-point bonus.
3. The Warriors are tied for the eighth-most points allowed in isolation
That’s not what you want from your team when Luka Doncic is on the other side since he leads the league in points scored in that play type. It’s not like that’s the only thing that Doncic can do since he’s scoring 1.62 points per minute with a 37.9% usage rate. Doncic is also third in drives per game, which will test the putrid Warriors’ defense in the paint. Golden State is still 22nd in defensive rating and they’re playing at the second-fastest pace in basketball. That’s a huge boost for Doncic and should allow him extra possessions since Dallas is 30th in pace.
4. Ivica Zubac scored over 75 DK points in his last game
It had to be one of the craziest results of the season Sunday when Zubac came close to posting 30/30 against the Pacers. I don’t think I can stomach paying $7,000 for him because the floor is under 20 DK points but it’s truly not a bad matchup. Portland is second in rebounds allowed in the paint but 24th in points. Zubac can also take advantage of the fact that Portland is 22nd against rim protectors and if cheap centers are the way the field goes, paying up can at least be different in theory.
5. Jerami Grant is scoring 1.04 points per minute
Grant has certainly had the green light in the past couple of games with 44 field goal attempts, and he’s scored a total of 78 points. The periphery stats aren’t there too much for him this season but Grant has been a main cog in the offense at times in his career. He’s not going to be shy about hoisting shots and the Clippers are 21st against stretch bigs. He’s a risky play because he needs to score a good bit of points but he’s leading in spot-up points per game. The Clippers are about average in points allowed, but it’s going to be a challenge for them to allow the eighth-lowest field goal rate with their current roster.
