Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is a lot of ground to cover tonight with seven games and a bunch of injuries that are very impactful on their respective teams.
There are going to be a ton of value options, so jamming in the most expensive players may not be that difficult to do. Let’s figure out five stats that will help us build some lineups.
1. The Grizzlies are missing Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson
There is a very small sample size this season with all three players off the floor, but the duo of Dillon Brooks and Tyus Jones are sure to be popular. Jones has a 24.0% usage rate and 1.03 points per minute, while Brooks is at a massive 33.2% usage rate. Brooks is also going to go as far as his jumper will take him, because he takes a ton of shots when the team is healthy. A total of 25 attempts wouldn’t shock me, and Jones could threaten for double-digit assists.
2. Klay Thompson has a 48.3% true shooting rate
Klay Thompson may never be back to what he was before his injuries, but I’m still not buying that he has a true shooting rate under 50% after 13 games played. Houston is in the bottom five in defensive rating, and even though the field goal rate is the 10th best from a 3-point distance, they are eighth in frequency allowed. Thompson can be tough to get right, but the salary still works and the matchup is great.
3. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are still out
The Nuggets face the Mavericks in a rematch of a couple of nights ago without two of their best players. If you start your lineups with two Grizzlies and two Nuggets, it would make a lot of sense. I love Bruce Brown and Bones Hyland once again, but Aaron Gordon looks like he can make his return to the lineup and is still under $6,000. He only has a 10-minute sample in this scenario, so the 1.36 points per minute aren’t exactly what we’re after, but he is far too cheap for a player with a usage rate over 25.5%.
4. Anthony Davis is at 1.64 points per minute without LeBron
This is a fantastic spot for Anthony Davis if LeBron James sits out again. San Antonio is 27th in points allowed in the paint, they are eighth in pace and dead last in defensive rating. I’m not sure the Lakers are capable of blowing out any team, even San Antonio. Davis is always scary to play with his history, but he leads the league in points scored in the paint at 12.5, 1.2 points per game higher than any other player.
5. The Heat could have seven players again
They are one of the most important teams on the slate right now. Even though the salaries have come up after Friday when almost everyone was under $4,000, there is a real scenario where Miami is playing only seven players. They have to play tomorrow, so this is a tough situation, but they are almost surely going to be short-handed tonight. Three players that logged well over 30 minutes are still under $5,000, so we could have a ton of options from a team where players simply can’t leave the court.
