Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It should be a very fun night on Monday, March 6th for our NBA DFS slates, as no game has a spread higher than 6.5 points, and two games project over 230 points for the total.
We also have some potential injuries, and the spreads indicate one team may rest some starters. Let’s get to work.
1. The Celtics allow the fourth-most points per game to the ball handler in pick-and-roll.
When the Boston team faced off against the Cavaliers just five days ago, we highlighted this stat as well. Proving prophetic, Donovan Mitchell scored 44 real points, averaging the fifth-most points per game as the primary ball handler. The FTN Advanced DvP Tool illustrates that despite the Celtics boasting a strong defense, there is a weakness that’s set for the Cleveland guards to exploit –
Now, I do prefer Mitchell, but he is listed as questionable. If he happens to sit out, Darius Garland would be the play, because he’s 12th in points per game as the primary ball handler. One of those two guards will look extremely appealing for this slate, especially since Boston had to play a double-overtime game about 24 hours ago.
2. Tyrese Maxey scores the ninth-most points per game in transition
The 76ers play Indiana in a massive pace-up spot, as the Pacers are 10th in pace and the 76ers are 26th. Indiana also allows the 12th-most points per game while defending transition chances, with Maxey at 5.3 points per contest. The 76ers have been playing him a ton of minutes in the past week, putting him back into the starting lineup. The salary is still low for a player that is scoring 0.95 points per minute but jumps to 1.13 points per minute if Tobias Harris (listed as questionable) is out on Monday.
3. Marvin Bagley played 34 minutes on Saturday night
That may not feel like an important stat, but those 34 minutes came despite the Pistons losing by over 30 points late in the game. Bagley stayed on the floor even in a blowout, and James Wiseman is now questionable. The Pistons are also still missing big men Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart. We have no concerns for Bagley (scoring 1.24 points per minute in this scenario), while the Blazers remain vulnerable on the interior. In the game on Saturday, Bagley had 10 touches in the paint while Portland is 25th in points per game allowed in the paint. With his combination of role and the security of the minutes (as well as positional flexibility on both sites) makes Bagley a very strong play in this matchup.
4. Nikola Jokic averages 18.5 rebound chances per game, the sixth-most
The Toronto Raptors are just 14th in rebounds allowed and 23rd against rebounders on the season, providing a good start for Jokic. In addition, the Raptors are allowing the 10th-highest field goal rate within five feet of the hoop, and they’re ninth-highest within a 5-foot-9 proximity. Jokic is scoring 1.72 points per minute and Jakob Poeltl is not scary on the defensive side of the court. On paper, it’s not the easiest matchup that Jokic will see since Toronto is fourth against skilled centers, but Jokic is matchup-proof and we always like playing him at home.
5. The New Orleans Pelicans allow the highest field goal rate within five feet of the hoop
That is a nice boost for Domantas Sabonis, who has taken 471 of his 710 shot attempts (66.3%) within five feet. Sabonis is also shooting 70.5% on those attempts, helping him score over 1.30 points per minute on the season. We also have the unknown status of DeAaron Fox, currently questionable with a hamstring injury. When a player has a soft tissue problem, I always project to sit out for at least a game or two. Sabonis doesn’t see much of a shift without Fox but the usage and assist rate does creep up to a small degree. If the Pelicans don’t elect to play Jonas Valanciunas for a ton of minutes, that would just make the path easier for Sabonis. If we get the required value on the slate, you can consider playing Sabonis and Jokic together.
