Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA brings us six games overall Saturday, with a five-game main DFS slate. It should bring us some competitive contests. All five games on the main slate have spreads under nine points, and two of the games have totals of over 235 points, making them even more appealing.
1. The Miami Heat are dead last in points per game allowed to spot-up shooters
Since Mikal Bridges has gotten to Brooklyn, he’s played 18 games for the Nets and been tied for third in points per game as a spot-up shooter across the league. Bridges is shooting almost 43.0% in those attempts and the Heat are also 29th in 3-point frequency. While Bridges is still slumping with his 3-point shot at just 25.0% over the past five games, he still scored over 30 real points in the last game and he’s very affordable for Saturday on both sites. DraftKings especially seems to be a bargain at $7,100 so even with the mediocre total for the game, he’s still an appealing option.
2. Over the past 15 games, Milwaukee is 30th against superstars
The FTN Advanced DvP Tool is such an important part of my day when writing these articles and it’s always nice to toggle it to the last 15 games to see how teams are trending.
To see Milwaukee bleeding points to superstars is fascinating, especially since they have to deal with Nikola Jokic. Sure, Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo will offer a challenge on the interior defensively but it’s also notable that Milwaukee allows over 50.0 points per game in the paint on the road this season. That would only rank around 16th overall and Jokic is scoring 1.68 points per minute on 63.6% from the field. The DK price of just $11,300 is calling my name in a national TV game this evening because Jokic could turn the tables in the MVP race with a big game and a win.
3. Tobias Harris sees a usage bump of 4.2% when James Harden is off the floor
It doesn’t look like Harden is going to play Saturday night when the 76ers visit the Suns and both teams played close games Friday that ended in a loss. Harris turns that extra usage into a 22.9% rate (there is only so much to go around when you play with Joel Embiid) and Harris scores 1.09 points per minute. The FTN Splits Tool shows how big of a boost Harden missing games has been for Harris as well –
He’ll likely be somewhat popular Saturday, but the perception of where Harris is at as a player always seems to leave him under-rostered when Harden is out of the game. Additionally, since the trade deadline has passed, the Suns have a 116.0 defensive rating. That would rank 23rd overall if they had this throughout the season, something Harris and the 76ers can pick on.
4. Davion Mitchell has scored 28.3 and 27.3 DK points in the past two games De’Aaron Fox has missed
Now, this might be a point of contention in the FTN Discord because the last time we played Mitchell was in February. It did not end well as Mitchell played 22 minutes and scored 5.8 DK points. It left most of us swearing off playing Mitchell again (raises hand) but it’s always important to remember that holding grudges in DFS doesn’t help us. Fox left the game on Friday night for the Kings with a hamstring injury and it seems very unwise to push him to play in this spot. The Jazz have massively struggled to deal with guards, ranking just 27th against primary ball handlers. Mitchell only scores 0.70 points per minute so by no means is he a sure thing. However, the salary is a huge help when building lineups and if he scores over 25.0 DK, you’re going to want him in the lineup Saturday.
5. Bones Hyland played 26 minutes in the last game for the Clippers
Some may argue that those minutes were inflated due to the Clippers smashing the Thunder, and they would be correct. Hyland played the entire fourth quarter, but the Clippers didn’t pull Russell Westbrook off the floor until 4:31 remained in the fourth. If Hyland even plays 20 minutes, that catches my eye since the Clippers are still without Norman Powell and now Paul George. The role of a scorer off the bench needs to be filled since that’s what Powell does and replacing George is no easy feat. It’s an extremely small sample but in his 52 minutes without those players on the floor, Hyland is scoring 1.46 points per minute. The craziest part of that sample is he’s sporting a 43.6% true shooting rate so he can pile up the fantasy points in a hurry.
