Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Welcome to “5 Stats to Know.” This article will appear every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Now, onto the noteworthy numbers for the slate at hand.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, New Orleans Pelicans
Jonas Valanciunas has seen a +2.2% (26.7%) increase in usage rate and a +3.4% increase in assist rate (16.6%) with Brandon Ingram off the floor this season.
Valanciunas has stepped up across the board in the absence of Ingram this season despite the presence of CJ McCollum, and he now steps into the best center matchup of the slate against the Charlotte Hornets. He flopped in 25 minutes last game against the Pelicans, scoring 22.5 fantasy points in 25 minutes, but the 142-120 score should be considered a contributing factor. In a bounce-back spot, Valanciunas should dominate against a team that is at the absolute bottom of the league against all of his archetypes.
Evan Mobley, PF/C, Cleveland Cavaliers (vs. LAL)
Over their last 10 games, the Lakers are allowing the fourth-most made shots per game in the restricted area (20.2), the sixth-most in the paint (non-restricted area) (7.7) and the fifth-most made mid-range shots per game (5.4).
The Lakers have been a train wreck all season, and while they’ve won more games recently than earlier in the season, they are still getting brutalized by opponents close to the rim in the absence of Anthony Davis. They rank bottom-six at the rim, in the paint and in the mid-range, catering right into Evan Mobley’s wheelhouse. Mobley has seen less than 35 minutes only once over his last five games, and given what should be a close game throughout in LeBron James’ return to Cleveland, he figures to see a lot of time and be heavily involved.
Tre Mann, PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder (vs. BOS)
With all of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey, Ty Jerome, Derrick Favors and Kenrich Williams off the floor this season, Tre Mann has led the team with a 31.2% usage rate.
After coming in as massive chalk on Sunday’s seven-game slate and ultimately disappointing with a 5-19 shooting performance, Monday offers us the perfect opportunity to go right back to the well. He’s averaged 19 field-goal attempts per game with the trio of Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey and Dort out this season and has solidified a floor with a 21.3% assist rate with them off the floor as well. Despite the difficult matchup, Mann is going to get his shots up. For the same price as Sunday’s slate, it’s going to be difficult to find another player with the volume and raw-point upside that Mann comes with on Monday’s slate.
Donovan Mitchell, SG, Utah Jazz (@ BKN)
In four games without Bojan Bogdanovic this season, Donovan Mitchell has posted a 36.61% usage rate, which would be the second-highest mark in the league among players averaging at least 20 minutes per game.
Mitchell has turned it on over his last few games with Bogdanovic out, averaging 31.5 points per game across those four games while adding 6.25 assists and 6.0 assists per game. With Bogdanovic already ruled out of Monday’s game against the Nets, Mitchell is locked into another massive workload against a team that ranks 24th against primary ball-handlers, per advanced DvP. For only $9,000 on DraftKings, Mitchell comes in as one of the strongest overall plays on the slate.
Chris Boucher, PF, Toronto Raptors (@ CHI)
Over his last three games in which Fred VanVleet has been out, Boucher has averaged 18.0 points, 11.3 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per game.
Whether he’s entered the starting lineup or not, Chris Boucher has been a fixture in this Raptors’ rotation in the absence of Fred VanVleet, as Nick Nurse shifts the lineup up with Scottie Barnes running point guard. Boucher has always been an elite per-minute producer, and given his 34 minutes per game over these three games, he’s showcased just that, averaging 41.67 DraftKings points per game. VanVleet is once again listed as questionable on Monday. If he sits out, Boucher will become a core play for me regardless of his starting status, given his newfound role in the VanVleet-less rotation.
