Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s Monday, and the NBA is barreling to the finish of the regular season. Outside of the Boston Celtics facing the Houston Rockets, every game has a spread of under eight points.
That didn’t exactly work out on Sunday night when it seemed like we had blowouts all over the place, but let’s talk about who’s helping us win on Monday!
1. The Pacers are 28th in rebounds allowed
So much of the Pacers against the Pistons game is just plug-and-play because both teams are missing players. They have combined to rule out 11 players already and Buddy Hield is still listed as questionable. That’s going to open up a ton in this game, and while plenty of the field will look to James Wiseman for the Pistons, I’m interested in Jalen Duren. He offers a discount from Wiseman on both sites and is scoring 1.15 points per minute, while the FTN Advanced DvP Tool shows us how great of a matchup he is in –
Duren is still playing just about 25 minutes after an injury, but that could increase slightly with no Marvin Bagley. Additionally, Duren is 13th in rebound chances per game and among those 13 players, Duren has the fewest minutes per game at 25.1. It’s a great spot and the salary is fantastic.
2. Luka Doncic is still out for the Dallas Mavericks
I have no idea if Kyrie Irving is playing on Monday, and even if he does, the salary is quite high on DK (it’s more reasonable on FD). I still think Jaden Hardy would play a big role off the bench if Kyrie is active, and he’s very affordable on both sites since he’s scoring 0.99 points per minute. He is not afraid to shoot the ball as he took 21 shots in 37 minutes on Saturday so if Kyrie is out, he’d be difficult not to lock up at this salary and move on. Dallas needs scoring in the absence of Luka Doncic, so even against the Grizzlies and their third-ranked defensive rating, I’m likely to be over the field wherever he comes in at.
3. The Hawks are 29th against skilled centers and 26th against stretch bigs
The Timberwolves are in Atlanta on Monday and the game has the highest total of the night at 244.5 points. Rudy Gobert is currently questionable. If he sits out, Naz Reid will be among the most (justifiably) popular plays on the slate, as he scores 1.39 points per minute. If that wasn’t enough, the DvP data stands out in a significant way for Reid:
Reid’s ability to stretch to the 3-point line could give the Atlanta defense and specifically Clint Capela some major issues. If Gobert does play, he’s scoring 1.18 points per minute, while Atlanta is in the bottom 12 in points per game allowed in the paint and rebounds allowed. The bottom line is we should want to get some exposure to the starting center for Minnesota on this slate.
4. Deandre Ayton scores 1.17 points per minute in the scenario for Phoenix
The Suns are taking on Golden State tonight, and the Warriors are 13th in points per game allowed in the paint but also just 23rd in rebounds allowed. There is a reason that the Warriors are 27th against rebounders, while Deandre Ayton should continue to have a bigger role in the offense. The Suns are without Kevin Durant, and Ayton took 15 shots on Saturday, the most he’s had in a game since the end of February. In the previous three games with Durant active, Ayton totaled 19 shot attempts, and Golden State is allowing the 11th-highest field goal rate within five feet of the basket.
5. The Sacramento Kings are allowing the ninth-highest field goal rate when defending teams in transition
The league leader in transition points scored per game is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is listed as questionable for the matchup against the Kings. He’s missed three straight games, but with the Bucks being favored, I tend to think he’s going to be back for this matchup against the Kings. With all of the cheap players in the Indiana game, it’s going to be pretty easy to play Giannis in this spot, and the matchup is delightful as far as the Stack Rating. Milwaukee is tied for second behind the Pacers game in the FTN NBA Game Environment Tool, and it doesn’t hurt that these teams are also both in the top 11 in pace. Giannis is scoring 1.72 points per minute and has a 38.7% usage rate on the year, and I wonder how popular he’ll be if the Bucks play this close to the vest. If the field doesn’t know if Giannis is playing, he could be low-rostered. With two games that are tipping off late, there are plenty of pivots available.
