Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Making its long-awaited return from the 2020-21 NBA season, the “5 Stats to Know” article will be returning for the post-All-Star Break NBA season. The DFS articles will come every day, Monday through Friday, provided by yours truly, to help you gain a quantitative edge on the rest of the field when identifying core plays.
The format of this article is simple. I will provide five stats that stuck out to me when diving into the day’s NBA slate. These could be derived from FTN’s suite of tools (Advanced DvP, NBA On/Off Splits) or from the NBA’s extensive library of statistics.
Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!
Kyle Kuzma, PF, Washington Wizards (vs. DET)
Since the trade deadline, Kyle Kuzma has averaged 23.0 points, 10.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game
Kuzma has seen a 22.8-touch-per-game increase (52.5 to 75.3) compared to his pre-deadline numbers and the results speak for themselves. His usage rate has climbed from 22.4% prior to the deadline to a team-leading 28.0% since, as he’s operated as a legitimate star in the limited sample size. In a favorable matchup against the Pistons, Kuzma should be primed for a productive outing once again and should come in as one of the lower-owned options in his price range.
LaMarcus Aldridge, C, Brooklyn Nets (@ TOR)
With Kyrie Irving, James Harden, Kevin Durant and Andre Drummond of the floor this season, Aldridge leads the team with a 29.0% usage rate
Aldrige has turned the clock back with his play in this scenario, averaging an elite 1.28 DraftKings points per minute accompanied by a 13.7% rebounding rate. While he’s not going to log starters’ minutes, Aldridge’s per-minute production over a per-36-minute sample size shows just how good he’s been, averaging 24.21 points, 9.61 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per-36-minutes in this scenario. With Drummond questionable, Aldridge could be thrust into a massive role. For only $4,500 on DraftKings, there’s the potential for him to be the best value play on the slate.
Luka Doncic, PG, Dallas Mavericks (@ LAL)
The Los Angeles Lakers rank 21st or worst against five of the six player traits that Luka Doncic has assigned to him per FTNDaily’s advanced DvP.
It’s no secret that the Lakers have spiraled this season, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But just how bad have they been? They rank 21st against point forwards, 21st against scorers, 29th against primary ball-handlers and 30th against crafty finishers. These are all archetypes that categorize Doncic, who’s been in other-worldly form as of late. Over his last five games, Doncic has averaged 34.4 points, 11.6 rebounds and 7.0 assists while shooting over 40% from three (40.4%). This is a buzzsaw running into a crumbling defensive unit. Doncic is my top priority on the slate.
Ivica Zubac, C, Los Angeles Clippers (@ HOU)
Over his last six games, Ivica Zubac has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute
Playing time has always been the biggest obstacle for Zubac, who’s finally been unleashed since the Clippers dealt Serge Ibaka away at the deadline. Over those six games, Zubac has seen elite per-minute production, logging four double-doubles while posting a team-high 20.2% rebounding rate. Soft matchups have contributed to his success, but he gets another one against the Rockets, who he just torched for 14 points and 15 rebounds last game.
Malik Beasley, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves (vs. GSW)
In six games without Anthony Edwards this season, Malik Beasley has seen a 59.7% jump in DraftKings points per game
While Beasley’s role has taken a step or two back recently, he could quickly find himself squarely in play should Edwards be ruled out, as the latter was recently a mid-day downgrade to questionable. Averaging 20.25 DraftKings points per game in games with Edwards active, Beasley sees that number spike to 32.33 in six games with Edwards out, averaging 20.00 points, 4.33 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. Even if he were to finish towards the lower end of that range of outcomes, his $3,300 price on DraftKings mitigates just about every feeling of risk if Edwards is ruled out.
