Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA season rolls on, and there are only six games tonight because of the College Football Playoff National Championship.
There are still some good games, and the highest total on the board once again comes from the late hammer, although it’s maybe not the team we usually talk about.
1. Kristaps Porzingis scores 1.20 points per possession as the roll man in the pick-and-roll
The Washington Wizards take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight, and Kristaps Porzingis could be a problem in the pick-and-roll game. Bradley Beal remains out, so Porizingis is scoring 1.32 points per minute with him off the court, and that’s more shots to go around for the offense. The Pelicans are in the bottom five in points per game allowed to the roll man, and they are also 28th against rim protectors and 13th against scorers.
2. Marcus Smart is doubtful against the Bulls
With Marcus Smart not playing for the Celtics, that could put a few extra minutes onto the plate of Malcolm Brogdon. He’s played the second-most minutes on the team without Smart on the floor and is scoring 1.18 points per minute along with a 26.1% usage rate. He also has an assist rate of 29.1%, and the salary is very strong for a player who can push 30 minutes in this style of matchup.
3. Tyus Jones is $4,900 on DK
The Memphis Grizzlies played last night and were missing three players, which led to Tyus Jones playing 34 minutes. Between the 11.5-point spread against the Spurs and the fact that Ja Morant and Desmond Bane could be candidates to miss this game, Jones has a route to success regardless of who’s active. Bane hasn’t played the second leg of a back-to-back yet since returning from his injury, so that’s on my radar again tonight. If both Morant and Bane do end up playing, Jones is still scoring 0.96 points per minute, and the Spurs are 10th in pace and 30th in defensive rating. There would appear to be little reason for Bane and Morant to be maxed on their minutes, which could leave Jones to still play 28-30. If Morant sits out again, Jones will be a top-three player in popularity.
4. Nikola Jokic is scoring 1.67 points per minute
The fact that the Nuggets are healthy has sometimes meant the ceiling for Nikola Jokic has been capped, but he plays the Lakers tonight. They are 28th against centers, 28th against rebounders and 28th against dimers. They have very little chance to be able to contain him with Thomas Bryant, and if Jokic can get him into foul trouble it’s just going to get worse. Los Angeles is 24th in points allowed per game in the paint and allows the seventh-most points against the post-up. This is one of the best all-around matchups that Jokic can possibly ask for, and if the game stays close (the spread is 10.5 points) Jokic could score over 70 DK points.
5. The Magic are allowing the second-highest field goal rate from a 3-point distance
That is going to allow the Kings a big opportunity, and one of the easiest ways to get involved in this game is to play Kevin Huerter. Not only do the Magic allow a 3-point field-goal rate, but they are also 29th in frequency allowed at 43.3%. That’s what you want to see when playing Huerter since over half of his attempts on the year have come from beyond the arc and he’s shooting 41.8% from downtown. There is always a chance that he flops badly since predicting shooting performances is not easy, but if he shoots 8-10 times tonight, he’s got a great chance to hit at this salary.
