Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saturday’s NBA DFS slate could be filled with news throughout the day — of the 12 teams on the main slate, six of them played Friday. The second leg of the back-to-back Saturday could lead to players sitting out, and there are already plenty of questionable players. Let’s talk about some stats to start building lineups as things stand.
1. Bradley Beal is scoring 1.12 points per minute
It has been a trying season for Beal, as he’s missed plenty of games with injury and his level of play just hasn’t been great. I’m sure the huge bag of money he got in the offseason helps, but for fantasy, he’s not been a player we’ve talked about much. Beal made his return to the lineup Wednesday and played 29 minutes and the salary is so low that It’s hard not to notice. He’s $7,400 on DK and he’s driving to the basket 14.5 times per game, scoring 9.7 points per game from that play. The Magic are 26th against crafty finishers and 20th against scorers while the salary demands attention.
2. The Bucks allow the most points per game to the ball handler in the pick-and-roll
I think Donovan Mitchell returns for the Cavaliers here, and if he does, this is a match made in heaven — he’s fifth in points per game scored as the ball handler. If he’s not active, Darius Garland is 12th so he’s a great fit as well but Mitchell has a 32.0% usage rate and 1.23 points per minute. The salary is also great for Mitchell at just $8,900 on DK and he’s averaging 36 minutes per night. It’s not going to hurt that the Bucks are 18th against primary ball handlers either.
3. LaMelo Ball is doubtful
Ball suffered an injury Wednesday night and left with about nine minutes left in the third quarter. That left roughly 21 minutes left in the game, and Dennis Smith logged 17 of those minutes, so he could be in line for a big workload tonight at just $4,000 on DK. When Ball has not been on the floor, Smith has scored 0.92 points per minute and has just a 46.0% true shooting rate. The Hawks matchup should bring out the best in him since the teams are in the top 10 in pace and they’re also just 17th against dimers, so we should expect Smith to be pretty popular.
4. Anthony Edwards is scoring 1.40 points per minute when Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns are out
I would think Gobert could still miss this game since he left his last game before the five-minute mark, but even if he plays the matchup is too good to pass up for him via the FTN Advanced DvP Tool –
The Rockets are also 28th in defensive rating and Edwards drives to the basket 12.1 times per night. Houston has managed to rank ninth in points per game allowed in the paint, but Edwards is still scoring 8.9 points per game in the play type. The usage rate is 29.9% and the positional flexibility is very nice. He should probably be closer to $10,000 in this matchup, even if Gobert does make it back.
5. James Harden is questionable against the Kings
This game is the late game, and that could leave us in an interesting spot. We saw Friday with the Denver Nuggets that not knowing the status of Nikola Jokic left Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and Aaron Gordon all far lower rostered than they should have been. If Harden is out, the trio of Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey could be in a similar spot and the Kings are 24th in defensive rating and are a huge pace-up spot for Philly. Embiid is scoring 1.64 points per minute and the Kings are allowing the ninth-highest points per game when facing post-ups while Embiid is second in points scored. Maxey would be at least $1,000 too cheap with his 31.8% usage rate and Harris is so disliked by most that he never gets rostered despite scoring 1.06 points per minute. There could be some risk involved if Harden winds up playing after the slate locks and it could leave you with limited options, but the reward could also be massive.
