Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NBA DFS schedule has been a little more balanced in the past few days, and that continues Friday with another nine games on the schedule, which is way better than the 12-14 that can await on some Fridays. There are some fantastic spots to target, and we should have plenty of value open up to pair with the top of the pricing grid so let’s find some stats to help us along.
1. Bam Adebayo scores 2.4 points per game via the post-up
The ranks for Adebayo against the Mavericks may not look super appealing since they are second against skilled centers. but this version of the Mavericks is undersized. Christian Wood (while no great shakes defensively) is out with a thumb injury and that leaves Dwight Powell and JaVale McGee to deal with Adebayo. He has a 26.7% usage rate and 1.18 points per minute even when the Heat are all healthy as they are tonight. Even still, Adebayo scores 7.8 points per game in the paint and Dallas is just 17th in points per game allowed in the paint. The salary should keep him off the radar for most of the field, but this is a great spot for him to record 50-plus DK points.
2. Mitchell Robinson is out for New York
This is a fascinating situation and we might have some options. The natural inclination will be to play Isaiah Hartenstien because he has been the primary backup. The Hawks represent a strong matchup and he’s the minimum salary on DK so we should expect him to be chalky. He’s produced 0.87 points per minute and the Hawks are 26th against rebounders on the season along with 26th in points in the paint allowed per game. However, there is another player to consider in Jericho Sims because he played more minutes last game. Moreover, Hartenstein left the court at 6:46 left in the third quarter and never came back into the game. Sims has produced an identical 0.87 points per minute so we’re going to need to be paying attention to the starting lineup and pre-game comments.
3. Nikola Jokic is questionable
It’s a rare thing to have a midday downgrade on the injury report and see a player suit up anyways, and Nikola Jokic was moved to questionable around 2:30 p.m. ET. I’ll be operating as though Jokic will miss this game and that leaves Jamal Murray with a 31.8% usage rate and 1.14 points per minute. The true shooting is at 54.2% but the matchup is amazing for him, not even counting the fact that Indiana plays at the fourth-quickest pace.
If Jokic sits, the Nuggets are almost all far too cheap and it’s not hard to fit in multiple of them. Murray will carry the load offensively and should be closer to $8,000 in this spot.
4. The Warriors punted Friday’s game
They played an overtime game Thursday night, so Golden State has decided to rest all of their main cogs, leaving Jordan Poole and their bench to deal with Cleveland. The matchup is not going to be great since the Cavaliers are second in defensive rating and while Poole is at a reasonable salary, there are going to be multiple starters that are under $5,500. Jonathan Kuminga is likely going to play but he’s been out for three weeks so we’ll need to see if he’s restricted. I believe my favorite play from the Warriors is Ty Jerome, regardless of if he starts or not. He’s going to be one of the first men in from the bench and has scored 0.85 points per minute with a 26.4% usage rate while he’s the minimum salary. Golden State is down to nine players overall and that’s including players that have missed significant time recently and the duo of Ryan Rollins and Patrick Baldwin. The word thin barely describes their situation, so they’re rightfully going to be popular.
5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 16.2 points per game from drives
That number leads the league, and Friday, he gets to face the Sacramento Kings in a game with a 242-point total. He’s now under $10,000 and is averaging 1.52 points per minute with a 33.7% usage rate. The pace in this game should be excellent since both teams are in the top six in pace and the Kings are in the bottom 10 in defensive rating. They are also in the bottom five in points per game allowed in the paint so they’ll have trouble slowing Gilgeous-Alexander down. I’m very interested in pairing him with either Domantas Sabonis or De’Aaron Fox in this game with a priority on Fox if Sabonis remains out. It’s a fantastic late-night hammer.
