Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is an afternoon game, but this article is going to be focused on the 10-game main slate, as we have a bunch of options to pick from.
Injuries are prevalent at the top of the pricing grid again, which could make for some interesting builds. Let’s dive in and start laying out some of our targets for the night.
1. Donovan Mitchell scores 1.32 points per minute without Darius Garland
This is a repeat from the last game, and Donovan Mitchell performed horribly, shooting just 5-for-16 from the floor which included 0-for-6 from deep. That’s not indicative of normal play without Darius Garland, who is doubtful for the Cavaliers when they take on the Bulls again. Chicago is 12th in pace and 25th against shooters, both of which are nice bumps for Mitchell in this spot. When Garland is on the floor, he drives to the basket the sixth-most in basketball, and Mitchell should take some of that onto his plate. We don’t always get players who have his scoring upside with a 34.5% usage rate at just $9,000 on DK.
2. The San Antonio Spurs are 28th in points allowed per game in the paint
They’ve allowed a ton of points in the paint all year, and Nic Claxton of the Brooklyn Nets is up to $6,300, not an inexpensive salary. He is also eighth in the league in paint touches, sixth in points per game and averages 14.4 rebound chances per game. In the past four games, Claxton has played 30, 30, 35, and 33 minutes, while the Spurs are 17th against rebounders. Claxton is a quiet player on the Nets but is scoring 1.09 points per minute.
3. Luka Doncic plays the Rockets for the third time in the last six games
In the first two games, Luka Doncic has accumulated 85 points, 23 assists, 20 rebounds and a total of 163 DK points. He’s on a frighteningly unreal tear right now, scoring over 80 DK in four of the past five. The Rockets are 28th in defensive rating and while yes, the law of averages dictates Luka cannot keep up this pace, Houston may not be the team to slow him down –
On a 10-game slate, we’re likely to get some value throughout the day, and in the past two weeks Doncic has scored 1.90 points on a 39% usage rate. The depth players missing have seemingly pushed him to new heights, and it’s hard to not want to just be over the field every night until this streak comes to an end.
4. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable
I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Joel Embiid sat out tonight because he’s been active and logging some huge minutes for around a month now. If he is out, we’re going to have some intriguing options across the salary grid from Philly as they take on the Pelicans, but perhaps the one I may gravitate toward is Paul Reed. He’s seen a dramatic effect when Embiid is not playing, as illustrated by the FTN Splits Tool –
Those numbers include three of the eight games where Reed played just six, two and two minutes, but that hasn’t happened in the past five instances. I would fully expect Montrezl Harrell to start this game, but Reed should get some solid minutes off the bench, as it has been in the last five games without Embiid. Reed is the bare minimum salary on DK, and even though he eats up a center slot, 1.03 points per minute should be worth rostering. Despite the Pelicans ranking second against rebounders, they are 20th in points in the paint allowed per game.
5. The Hawks and Warriors matchup has a 1.5-point spread
This is the most appealing late-night hammer with the largest total and closest spread among the three late games. Trae Young has a 35.2% usage rate and scores 1.36 points per minute and drives to the hoop the fourth-most in the league at 17.9 times per game. He’s scoring 11.5 points per game in that play, and the Warriors are still 12th in points per game allowed in the paint. The Golden State perimeter defense will have a difficult time holding Young back from his drives, and he’s under $10,000, always a bonus with a player of his caliber.
