Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA is not data-driven in the same way sports like baseball and golf are. In particular, we can’t evaluate individual matchups solely through calculations. However, we can still use both team level and individual statistics to guide our lineup-building process on a daily basis. Here are five stats I want to build around in DFS for Wednesday.
1. 1.10
As you all know by now, I always start my analysis with the game environment tool. Wednesday, the Hornets and Rockets combine for a 1.1 stack rating, the cutoff we love to use as the green light to “stack away.” Even on a nine-game slate, I’d love to have multiple pieces from each side of this game.
2. 1.76
Since Christmas, Luka Doncic has somehow increased his fantasy point per minute output to 1.76, raising his season average to 1.71. Atlanta is 30th against scorers and 27th against primary ball-handlers, and I think DraftKings simply doesn’t know what to do with Luka’s price tag. It’s not high enough.
3. 3
Josh Giddey has gone over 50 DK points in three of his last four games. We never want to get caught game-log watching, but this increase in output is supported by all of the underlying numbers. His usage has jumped from 23.1% to 26.7%. His assist rate has jumped from 26.7% to 35.9% and even his rebound rate has increased.
Essentially, he’s taking the step forward that we all hoped he would. Indiana is 21st against primary ball-handlers and 26th against rebounders, so Giddey could be on triple-double watch against.
4. 0.91
Kawhi Leonard and/or Paul George will almost certainly sit after playing against Philly Tuesday, which opens minutes for Robert Covington. Covington is at 0.91 FPPM this season despite shooting under 32% from three. He’s been over 37% in each of the past three seasons, so positive shooting regression should come his way, which could also lead to a minutes boost of its own.
5. 1.13
Walker Kessler averages 1.13 FPPM and is in line for another 30 minutes or so as Kelly Olynyk remains out. $5400 is at least a thousand too cheap. The Clippers are 21st against rebounders and 26th against rim protectors.
