Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every one of the four games for Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate has a spread of under seven points, which ideally will make for some fun games. There is a distinction between the totals as two games are under 225 and two games are at 232 or higher, so that’s an interesting factor when building. Let’s discuss some stats that can help us get a handle on the slate for Tuesday.
1. Scottie Barnes is waking up
The second-year man for the Raptors has had a difficult season, to the point where he was recently defended like Ben Simmons where all five guys neglected to pick him up around the 3-point line. However, his shooting is starting to come alive and everything else has started to follow –
Seeing that he’s made a habit of it in the first season, it does make a little bit of sense that he might just be a slow starter. Barnes is also third on his team in touches so when the shot isn’t working as well, it hurts his fantasy production. The calendar flipped to January and Barnes is at 1.14 points per minute since that point. Even though the Bucks are third in defensive rating, the shot has been working for Barnes and he needs to be considered.
2. It’s likely going to be Ben Simmons Chalk Night
The Nets will continue to be without Kevin Durant for a few more weeks and Ben Simmons is under $6,000, which already will attract the attention of the field. It’s also going to help him that the San Antonio Spurs are dead last in defensive rating along with ranking eighth in pace. Simmons is scoring 1.03 points per minute and the Spurs are 21st against dimers, another check mark for Simmons. We just saw that Simmons is capable of a big fantasy game with legitimately zero real points scored, so his offensive issues are not of the highest concern here. Simmons easily leads the team with a 35.5% assist rate and it wouldn’t surprise me if he double-doubled on just rebounds and assists alone as San Antonio is 20th in rebounds allowed per game.
3. The Nuggets allow the eighth-highest field goal rate to ball handlers in the pick-and-roll
That’s one way for Damian Lillard to exploit this defense, as he’s sixth in the league in points per game scored. While Denver is seventh against primary ball handlers, Lillard seems to always get the best of them from a fantasy perspective with games of 56.75, 54.0, and 72.5 DK points already this season. He’s been struggling with his 3-point shot lately with just 31.7% in the past six games but at the same time, he’s scoring over 51.0 DK points and is just $9,500. Lillard is inside the top eight in both total touches and frontcourt touches this year, so he does feel slightly cheap for this matchup.
4. Nikola Jokic is 0.2 assists per game away from averaging a triple-double
All Jokic does is produce and the Blazers are 25th against centers overall, let alone one that is as skilled as Jokic. Portland is only 22nd in points per game allowed and even though they are third in rebounds allowed per game, this is a great spot for Jokic. The Blazers have fallen to 21st in defensive rating and they’re in the bottom 12 in field goals allowed in the post-up game. Jokic leads the league in points scored in that play type while Jokic is at 1.68 points per minute on the year. We may not get the requisite value to pair Jokic with Lillard, but I would love to do so if that path is open to us.
5. The Clippers are in the bottom 10 against centers
They are also 26th against rim protectors and 21st against rebounders, so Joel Embiid has a strong matchup. There is an argument that he’s the better play ahead of Jokic since the Nuggets are healthy and Embiid has to pour in points for the Sixers. Embiid has a massive usage rate of 38.4% and trails only Jokic in post-up points per game. He’s also logging over 35 minutes per game when things stay competitive and that shouldn’t be an issue in this game with a spread under two points. It will be an interesting matchup as Embiid leads the league in points scored as the roll man in the pick-and-roll but the Clippers allow the second-lowest field goal rate and the seventh-fewest points per game. I do side with Embiid because the man is just otherworldly and he’s getting to the free throw line over 11 times per game.
