Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
We haven’t had a ton of split slates yet this year, but Sunday brings us an afternoon and a main slate, so it will be a big day on all fronts.
There are some fun matchups on each slate, and the afternoon slate is mostly healthy, except for just a couple of players. Let’s get after both slates with some stats that will get the ball rolling.
1. The Pistons are 28th against rebounders (Early)
Detroit is a team that we want to attack since they are 29th in defensive rating and 13th in pace. The issue comes from the fact that the Knicks’ main trio of Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett are priced right about at their ceilings. With Barrett just recently returning, there are higher odds for a failure, but Mitchell Robinson certainly has my eye. He’s averaging 15.5 rebound chances per game, while the Pistons are 23rd against centers, 28th in points allowed per game in the paint and 19th in rebounds allowed per game. Lastly, the Pistons allow the eighth-most points per game on putbacks, whereas Robinson is third in the league in scoring on that play type.
2. The Clippers are likely to be missing four rotation players against the Rockets (Early)
I would expect some heavy chalk from this squad, as they are without Paul George and Luke Kennard, while John Wall and Marcus Morris are both doubtful. Norman Powell has already been in a secondary scoring threat role lately off the bench, but he’s been playing starter minutes with 31, 31 and 29 in the last three games. Given the scenario, Powell has a 29.7% usage rate and 1.14 points per minute, while he’s still under $6,000. The matchup helps quite a bit as well since the Rockets are 28th in defensive rating and also rank 29th against scorers.
3. Domantas Sabonis is at 1.36 points per minute (Main)
It’s quite impressive that he’s only soaking up a 20.9% usage rate, but Domantas Sabonis is helping spearhead a run toward the playoffs for the Kings, and fantasy players are reaping the benefits. He’s been fantastic and on a slate that could see Luka Doncic sit out (an educated guess and nothing more). It likely comes down to Sabonis and Nikola Jokic for the highest fantasy score on the night. I’ll save some salary and play more of Sabonis against the Spurs since both teams are in the top eight in pace and bottom six in defensive rating. The Spurs are in the bottom 10 against centers and 30th against primary ball-handlers, not to mention ranking dead last in points allowed per game in the paint and 20th in rebounds. This is a fantastic spot to build on the last game for Sabonis.
4. Ben Simmons scored 35.8 DK points in the last game (Main)
That seems like a “who cares” stat until you notice he didn’t score a single real point. Ben Simmons went 0-for-3 from the field in the first game without Kevin Durant for the next few weeks but still racked up 13 assists, nine rebounds and three steals+blocks. He’s up to 1.03 points per minute without Durant, and while there is concern about his fouls with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander driving to the basket at all times, Simmons is still under $6,000 and likely will be popular. The Thunder are 18th against low-usage wing players, and Simmons will have a larger responsibility on the offensive end, even if the actual scoring doesn’t change that much. With an obvious upside of 40.0 DK points or more, we’ll have to decide if we want to eat a (probably) chalky Simmons or pass on him tonight.
5. Joel Embiid has a 38.5% usage rate (Main)
I loved the big man for the 76ers last night, and that blew up in my face. But tonight is a new night, and the matchup is even more spectacular –
The Lakers are playing at the second-fastest pace this year, and without Anthony Davis in the fold they have been atrocious defensively. Even though they have improved a little in the past handful of games, they would still be in the bottom 10, and Thomas Bryant is not going to stop Joel Embiid here. Los Angeles is 25th in points allowed in the paint and 25th in rebounds allowed, and if you’re not going to play Sabonis, Embiid is the next man in my lineups.
