Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve got nine NBA games Wednesday evening, and seven of those games are under a nine-point spread, so it should be a good night of DFS hoops after Tuesday had some blowouts that hurt. There are also some high totals with six games over the 230-point mark, although the context of this slate can always change with the trade deadline coming up within close to 24 hours.
1. Bradley Beal is scoring 1.23 points per minute without Kyle Kuzma on the floor
There is not much of a way to describe the season for Beal this year as anything but disappointing, but this is a wonderful spot for him. This is with the assumption that Kuzma will miss this game and Beal looks more like last season’s version when Kuzma is off the floor. Not only does he jump to 1.23 points per minute, but the usage rate goes up to 32.0% and the Hornets are allowing the second-highest points per possession in isolation. Beal is scoring 2.8 points per game, but he will have additional opportunities in that play type tonight, while the Hornets are playing at the seventh-fastest pace while ranking 25th in defensive rating. It is only a one-game sample this year, but the FTN Splits Tool shows us the outcome we’re looking for if we play Beal without Kuzma –
2. Buddy Hield is shooting 42.8% from a 3-point distance this year
The Pacers are taking on the Heat, and while Hield is a volatile player, this is one of the best spots he can ask for. Miami is second in frequency allowed from beyond the arc at 43.5% while they also allow the eighth-highest field goal rate at 36.6%. Hield is eighth in attempts per game with 8.8 but among those eight players, Hield leads that group with his 42.8% field goal rate. If that wasn’t enough, Miami is 27th against shooters and they also allow the second-most points per game to spot-up shooters. Hield is scoring 5.5 points per game and while game logs aren’t nearly the best reason to play someone, Hield has scored at least 32.8 DK points in 11 of the past 12 games against Miami and seven have been over 38.0 DK.
3. The Spurs are dead last in defensive rating on the season
They are in Toronto in what has a very strong chance to be the last game for this main group of Raptors players. They are heavily involved in trade rumors, and it seems sealed that at least one of the main core players will not be there after Thursday. For Wednesday night, The salaries for the main Raptors are up there, but the Spurs are playing at the eighth-fastest pace on top of the worst defensive rating in the league. Fred VanVleet leads the team with 1.20 points per minute without OG Anunoby and the Spurs are also dead last in the 3-point field goal rate allowed at 40.1%. The shooting for VanVleet has been very sketchy through the season but he’s never shy about hoisting a three. In addition, since the Anunoby injury, VanVleet is third in the league in touches per game and his salary makes the most sense to me on DK.
4. The Kings allow the eighth-highest field goal rate in isolation
That’s good news for Jalen Green, as the Rockets take on the Kings for the second time in three nights. Houston is still without Kevin Porter, and both of these guards combine for a 25.6% frequency in isolation, so Green is going to have an additional opportunity tonight. The Kings are 18th against crafty finishers and there is no real reason for Green to be under $7,000 on both DK and FD. Green has a 30.8% usage rate, even though the points per minute look mediocre at just 1.05. A big part of that is a 52.9% true shooting rate but the good news is this game has the highest total on the night and leads the Stack Rating in the FTN NBA Game Environment Tool, one of the reasons Green has high points per dollar ceiling.
5. Draymond Green leads the Warriors with a 26.6% assist rate
I still love the salary on DK while the FD salary is fine since blocks and steals are worth more points, but Green has been thriving. Green is close to 38.0 DK points over the past four games and the Blazers are more vulnerable at the center spot with Drew Eubanks playing more minutes. Green is far from the typical “center” since he helps run the offense and it allows him to roam a little more, raising the chances for closing in on a triple-double nightly (even if he doesn’t hit it). Portland is down to 27th in defensive rating and Green is surrounded by talented shooters to maximize the assist chances. Not only are these teams fourth and fifth in the stack rating tonight, but Green has also played 32-34 minutes when needed and this game has a spread under three points.
