Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
There is a two-game NBA DFS slate Saturday as an appetizer for the seven-game main slate on DraftKings, but this article will be focused on the latter so we can cover a bit more ground. We should be in for a fun night of action as only two games have a spread over nine points and there are plenty of high totals to go around.
1. Deandre Ayton is scoring 11.0 points per game in the paint
That’s the second-highest mark in the league behind only Anthony Davis, and Ayton has been forced into a larger role this year for the Suns. They are in Detroit, and we should keep in mind that both teams in this game played Friday night, so we’ll see what develops. As long as Ayton is active, he looks like a great play. Detroit is 23rd against centers overall, not to mention they are also 29th in points per game allowed in the paint and 19th in rebounds allowed per game. With Ayton currently sporting a 28.3% usage rate and 1.21 points per minute, his salary Saturday is much more appealing than it was Friday.
2. Josh Giddey has a 26.2% usage rate without Luguentz Dort on the floor
There are games where Giddey doesn’t reach more than about 30 minutes, but when he does, there is a strong chance of a ceiling outcome. Oklahoma City can push the pace since they’re third while the Rockets are 28th in defensive rating, while Giddey does a little bit of everything. He has a 27.9% assist rate and 1.08 points per minute even though his true shooting rate is just 52.0% and in this environment, Giddey could flirt with a triple-double.
3. Jimmy Butler is still under $7,500 on DK
He has hurt us recently with some very poor results but the Heat are going to be missing Kyle Lowry and likely Victor Oladipo (he’s doubtful). That would leave Butler with a 23.5% usage rate and 1.41 points per minute, which is very difficult to not notice at this salary. Sure, the total is low for this game at just 222.5 points but the Bucks are 11th in pace, a big step up for the Heat since they are 28th. Miami is only one game ahead of the play-in scenario in the East and Butler needs to start bringing his best to each game, starting.
4. The Mavericks are without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood
Typically, that means we’re heading toward Spencer Dinwiddie and that will be the case as long as he’s active. The Mavericks have listed him as questionable for the matchup with Golden State but this game is on ABC and is already missing Doncic, so I lean toward him playing. Provided Dinwiddie suits up, his usage rate is over 35% and the points per minute are just about 1.30 for the paltry salary of $7,100. Golden State plays at a blistering pace (first in the league) and that could help maximize his 42.4% assist rate. Dinwiddie is sure to be popular but he should be at this salary.
5. The Nuggets have stopped playing Bones Hyland
Denver could hold the keys to the slate as they have listed Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon as questionable. With the Nuggets playing Sunday as well, we could see them play this game without both players and Hyland would be a third player that is missing. He’s seen just four minutes of action in the past two games so Bruce Brown is very high on my radar. Just without Hyland on the floor, Brown scores 0.94 points per minute and he’s under $5,000. Even if Jokic and Gordon play, he’ll be running the second unit by all indications. If Jokic and Gordon are out, Brown just becomes that much more appealing.
